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SE Asia Report: Darwin feeder steer prices surge to $4

Dr Ross Ainsworth, December 8, 2020

Ross Ainsworth's SE Asia Report

 Bahasa Indonesia version

 

84th Edition : November 2020

 

Key Points

  • Indonesian slaughter prices up again but retail fresh beef prices are unchanged
  • Filipino slaughter prices fly even higher
  • Indonesian and Vietnamese demand for live imports remains strong despite rising Aussie cattle prices

 

Indonesia : Slaughter Steers AUD $4.17/kg live weight (Rp10,350 = $1AUD)

Slaughter cattle prices have continued to rise with the new indicator rate this month at Rp43,000 per kg live weight for slaughter steers. There is still a wide spread of prices from Rp41k in Lampung up to 45k in Java while prices in Aceh have been as high as Rp46,700. While these rising prices are no real surprise given the much higher purchase price for feeder cattle from Australia the remarkable market feature this month is that retail fresh meat prices have not changed. This situation has been seen before but not for a very long time. When butchers are unable to pay the additional price, one of the strategies used in the past has been to offer them credit as a means of reducing the pain of lower margins. This is always effective in the beginning as butchers around the world like nothing more than credit but the outcome in the past has usually been a high level of defaults when the payment is finally due. Wet market butchers frequently have no assets to offer as security so loans are often made on the basis of a mixture of dire need, good will and crossed fingers.

Exporters report that despite the record Australian FOB feeder prices of AUD$4 per kg live weight, the demand for future imports is strong. October imports were 36,000 in line with the regular monthly average with a calendar year number to the end of October at 520,000 or a 12 month average of 43.3k. The current high demand suggests that this level of imports may not be sufficient to keep a lid on domestic fresh beef prices.

Frozen Indian buffalo (IBM) appears to be widely available but despite the strong demand for fresh beef, the retail prices for IBM continue to be discounted with rates as low as Rp70,000 (from a normal price of Rp80k). This seems to be further evidence that the frozen IBM and fresh beef have divided into two quite separate and relatively unrelated markets, a very good sign for the future of fresh beef.

MLA promotion of True Aussie beef in Giant supermarket BSD City Jakarta.

Darwin feeder steer prices surged upwards again in November ending the month at the widely predicted $4 per kg live weight as supplies in the remaining stockpiles continue to run down. One-off rates of up to $4.10 were reported for special lines. The general consensus is that $4 per kg is here to stay until the new mustering season commences in April 2021. Townsville slaughter cattle rates continue to be strong at $3.80 per kg live.

 

Vietnam: Slaughter Steers AUD $4.50 / kg (VND16,900 to $1AUD)

Slaughter prices have jumped an average of Dong2,000 to D76,000 per kg during November in line with rising prices for slaughter and feeder cattle imported from northern Australia. Exporters report that demand for December shipments continues to be extremely strong despite rising prices and dwindling supplies. October import numbers were 26,000, well up from 18k in September.

It seems that the strong domestic economy, stock losses in the recent floods and the massive and ongoing decline in pork availability following the African Swine Fever (ASF) pandemic are the main drivers of this powerful demand. The OIE map below shows that Vietnam still has a relatively large number of ongoing outbreaks (1,475) across the country.

OIE map of ASF reports at 26th November 2020.

 

China: Slaughter Cattle AUD $7.59 / kg live weight  (RMB 4.82 = AUD$)

Slaughter prices have eased this month, falling back from Y38 in October to Y36.6 per kg live weight in November. Despite this, retail prices in Beijing and Shanghai have remained steady and even increased in Beijing supermarkets. Pork prices have eased a little but are still very high by recent standards.

Philippines:  Slaughter Cattle AUD $7.22 / kg (Peso 35.3 to AUD$1)

The live cattle slaughter price in Mindanao has risen from  225 last month to 255 Peso per kg live weight in November. Cattle prices continue to respond to the increased retail demand due to the easing of Covid19 restrictions especially in Mindanao where my reporter is based. In his words “Everything went up, everything is available and people have cash” and “consumers have broken loose”. 

Thailand: Slaughter Steers AUD $4.75 / kg (Baht 22.1 to $1AUD)

No change in slaughter prices or wet market beef rates during November which is not surprising as the Thai economy has been heavily impacted by the pandemic.

Australia truly is a lucky country and I am very lucky to be back

I continue to enjoy some of the bounty of the Australian food industry while visiting friends and family across different parts of the country. One of the restrictions when living in Asia (and sailing on cattle ships) is the marginal quality of beef and often a total lack of wine. Angus Adnam and Greg Pankhurst have been assisting me to catch up on these deficits with the best of beef, fish and wine to match. See samples of some magnificent pairs below. The fish is personally caught whiting from Morten Bay thanks to Harry Trelor.  I was also lucky enough to find some delicious Jersey Milk in Cobram, Victoria.

 

Carrara Wagyu Striploin

 

Moreton Bay Whiting. Any fresher and they would jump out of the pan.

 

Magnificent Jersey milk used for coffee making at the Cobram Beach Club.

 

November 2020

These figures are converted to AUD$ from their respective currencies which are changing every day so the actual prices here are corrupted slightly by constant foreign exchange fluctuations. The AUD$ figures presented below should be regarded as reliable trends rather than exact individual prices. Where possible the meat cut used for pricing in the wet and supermarket is Knuckle / Round.

 

Location Date Wet Market

AUD$/kg

Super market

$/kg

Broiler chicken

$/kg

Live Steer

Slaughter Wt

AUD$/kg

Indonesia June 20 13.13 15.95 4.55 4.04
Rp10,200 July 20 12.75 13.68 B$8.09 3.92 3.97
Rp10,700 August 20 12.15 13.83 B$7.47 2.99 3.83
Rp10,700 Sept 20 12.43 13.55 B$7.48 3.27 3.83
Rp10,500 Oct 20 12.38 15.05 B7.62 3.14 4.05
Rp10,350 Nov 20 12.56 15.27 B7.25 3.57 4.17
Philippines June 20 15.07 15.07 3.48 5.94
P34.7 July 20 14.99 14.99 3.46 5.91
P35.4 August 20 14.69 14.69 3.67 5.79
P35.0 Sept 20 15.43 14.86 3.49 5.85
P34.6 Oct 20 16.18 16.76 4.05 6.50
P35.3 Nov 20 16.43 16.71 4.67 7.22
Thailand June 20 10.23 NA 3.26 4.33
THB22.0 July 20 10.00 NA 3.18 4.41
THB22.6 August 20 10.18 NA 3.10 4.69
THB22.6 Sept 20 10.18 NA 3.10 4.56
THB22.2 Oct 20 10.36 NA 3.15 4.73
THB22.1 Nov 20 10.41 NA 3.17 4.75
Vietnam June 20 NA 17.39 4.10 4.47
D16,400 July 20 18.90 16.83 4.27 4.39
D16,800 August 20 18.45 15.89 5.12 4.29
D16,700 Sept 20 18.56 15.99 5.15 4.43
D16,600 Oct 20 18.67 16.08 4.82 4.46
D16,900 Nov 20 18.34 15.79 NA 4.50
China Beijing June 20 NA 16.34 3.70 6.55
Y4.95 July 20 16.16 17.41 3.64 6.44
Y5.0 August 20 17.20 18.92 3.52 6.82
Y4.9 Sept 20 18.78 20.00 3.71 7.55
Y4.8 Oct 20 20.00 21.25 3.79 7.92
Y4.82 Nov 20 19.92 21.99 4.06 7.47
Shanghai June 20 18.07 22.18 3.49 6.41
Pork per kg July 20 17.90 21.82 3.43 6.55
Beijing Y56.8 August 20 17.72 22.00 3.50 6.64
ShanghaiY45.2 Sept 20 20.82 24.08 3.57 7.76
Oct 20 21.88 25.00 3.58 7.92
Nov 20 21.83 24.89 4.11 7.72
Darwin Feeder Steer June 19

$2.90

July 19

$3.00

August 19

$3.15

Sept 19

$3.15

October 19

$3.30

Nov 19

$3.35

Dec 19

$3.25

January 2020

$3.25

Feb 2020 $3.80 March 2020

$3.40

April 20

$2.80

May 20

$3.25

June 2020

$3.40

July 2020

$3.50

August 2020

$3.40

Sept 2020

$3.45

October 2020

$3.90

Nov 2020

$4.00

 

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Comments

  1. Val Dyer, December 9, 2020

    Thanks Ross, the line graph confirms Indonesia as a stable market over time. Good news.
    Phillipine market has surprised me as prices were very low for a long time, but also good news.
    Would you like to catch a few amazing King George whiting in SA?

  2. Martin Gomez, December 8, 2020

    Your Philippine numbers are a bit off I believe.

    • Ross Ainsworth, December 9, 2020

      Gday Martin, long time no see.
      I have asked a number of times for advice on prices from Luzon but never received any replies. The prices I am using are from an abattoir in Davao. I would be happy to receive regular prices from anyone or corrections. If my prices are not right please advise what the current prices are so I can report. thanks Ross

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