133rd Edition: January 2025

Key points:

• Indonesia shifts beef imports to State control, cutting private sector allocations, citing FMD and food security concerns.
• FMD cases surge across Indonesian provinces.
• Flooding in North Queensland has delayed Townsville cattle exports.

A quick note to readers that I move back to Perth in a few weeks after 14 years abroad. The SE Asia report will continue with the network of contributors we have through the region and a number of ongoing projects, especially in Vietnam and Indonesia.

I am looking forward to being on home soil in 2025, with a renewed focus on making animal welfare easier for livestock businesses and industry through Impetus Animal Welfare.

Indonesia: Slaughter Steers $4.58 AUD per kg live weight (IDR 10,235 = $1 AUD)

Beef Prices

The Indonesian government has thrown beef importers into a spin by announcing that State-owned enterprises will now control the importation of 100,000 tonnes of beef and 100,000 tonnes of Indian Buffalo Meat (IBM), while private companies have been allocated just 80,000 tonnes of beef imports, 108,000t less than they expected.

This is a last-minute change after importers were told in January that they would be receiving import permits for the 188,000t they expected. The official justification is also of interest, with the Government stating that centralising imports will help manage Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) risks, which seems to suggest the government does link FMD incursion with beef imports, something they had previously been very cautious to not do directly.  This substantial change shows the volatile operating environment beef traders to and in Indonesia face and reinforces concerns that the Government’s move is more about controlling supply chains than any genuine concern over food security or disease control.

The reference to FMD was made amidst a FMD resurgence in recent months which is threatening Indonesia’s livestock industry, with daily cases in East Java surging from 25 to 250 between late 2024 and early 2025. By mid-January, infections had spread across seven provinces, affecting 50 districts and 286 villages, with 9.2 million livestock deemed susceptible, including 3.4 million cattle. Despite government intervention, the planned four million vaccine doses for 2025 fall short of national needs, and logistical challenges hinder distribution, particularly in remote areas. Private sector participation remains low, despite vaccines costing about IDR 17,000–25,000 ($1–$1.60 USD) per dose. The economic fallout is severe, with losses estimated at IDR 40 trillion ($2.6 billion USD).

With Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr approaching in March 2025, the Indonesian government faces pressure to ensure stable meat supplies. The situation bodes well for importers of Australian live cattle, who are reportedly well stocked leading into the festival period. The state owned beef and IBM importers will obviously play a large part as well, though there are doubts around volumes of IBM imports with 2024 volumes apparently very low.

Photos: Unloading about to get underway in Lampung. These trucks hold 12-13 head

As reported by Beef Central last week the Indonesian government has released permits for 350,000 head of live cattle, half of the 700,000 head quota for tariff-free imports under the AI-CEPA agreement. This is far less disruptive than the situation faced by beef importers, but will no doubt have industry wondering what might happen when it comes time to ask for the other 350,000 head of permits. Amidst this uncertainty rumours continue to circulate that a shipment of Brazilian feeder cattle is imminent but this seems hard to believe based on a back of the envelope cost calculation which would still put Brazilian cattle at about $1 AUD per kg higher than Australian cattle CIF.

Indonesia’s feed industry is also finding itself at the mercy of government trade policy with the Indonesian government announcing plans to halt corn imports due to increased domestic production, shifting instead to importing wheat for animal feed. Coordinating Minister for Food, Zulkifli Hasan, emphasised the need to protect local corn farmers while ensuring affordable feed options. With domestic corn production expected to meet demand, this policy aims to stabilise the market and support farmer confidence. For years, Indonesia’s cattle feedlot industry has debated transitioning from its current reliance on local by-products to a grain-based ration similar to Australia’s. The rising cost and declining protein content of these by-products, as industries become more efficient at extracting valuable components, have driven this discussion. However, access to feed-quality grain has been a key hurdle. The government’s decision to boost wheat imports for animal feed may provide an opportunity for those looking to trial grain-based feeding systems.

Vietnam: Slaughter Steers $4.78 AUD per kg live weight (VND 15,819 = $1 AUD)

In Vietnam, the lead-up to the Tet festival in January 2025 saw a predictable surge in demand for live cattle, with slaughter numbers rising by around 30% during the period. This increase aligns with expectations, as the Lunar New Year celebrations traditionally drive heightened meat consumption across the country. Despite the  rise in slaughter numbers during the festival period, overall market conditions remain stable, with no major changes reported in live cattle imports or domestic supply chains.

My contacts in the region have noted that at this time of year, when temperatures in Hanoi hover between 10-15°C, there is a small preference in some feedlots and abattoirs for cattle sourced from northern Myanmar. These cattle are believed to be better adapted to the cooler conditions compared to those from Australia or Thailand. As a result, Myanmar cattle have been trading at a slight premium over Australian cattle in northern Vietnam, while Australian and imported Thai cattle have remained closely matched in price.

Australia: Feeder Steers Darwin $3.60

Heavy rains in North Queensland at the start of February have thrown a spanner in the works for live cattle exports out of Townsville. Over a metre of rain in some areas has led to flooding, road closures, and logistical headaches, making it difficult to move cattle to port and load vessels on schedule. The delays come at a time when demand from key markets remains strong, adding further pressure to an already tight supply chain. While the weather will clear, the backlog of cattle and disrupted shipping schedules could take weeks to sort out.

Year 2024 to November for cattle exports – comparison across SE Asian markets

Source: DAFF