Data source: ABARES

IN its annual agricultural commodity update released at this week’s Outlook conference in Canberra, ABARES has predicted cattle exports to increase by 23 percent year-on-year in 2024-25 to 817,000 head.

It expects that to be followed by a further 10 percent rise in 2025-26 to 898,000 head.

The forecast is based on ABARES’ view that there will be a stronger supply of cattle for live export across northern Australia, and export prices for feeder and slaughter cattle will remain well below the 10-year average, which will drive stronger demand from Indonesian buyers and increased export volumes.

“Indonesian demand for live feeder/slaughter cattle is forecast to rise, reflecting improved consumer demand and reduced competition from Indian buffalo meat due to changes in the allocation of import permits,” ABARES states.

“Live cattle export prices are expected to remain at relatively affordable levels for Indonesian buyers – below the 10-year average to 2023–24 in real terms.”

ABARES notes that policy changes in Australia’s major market of Indonesia present an upside risk for demand to Australian exports over the outlook period.

“Indonesian cattle producers are being encouraged to import more breeder cattle to develop the Indonesian Government’s free milk and meals program for children and pregnant women.

“This may increase Indonesian demand for Australian live breeder cattle exports in the short-term.

“However, any market access expansion for live cattle imports (such as from Brazil and New Zealand) to support implementation of this policy may mitigate upside risk for Australian exports.”

Live dairy breeder cattle exports to China are forecast to remain subdued as high Chinese milk production keeps Chinese milk prices relatively low.