Ag Tech

10 key forces shaping Australia’s rural industries

Beef Central 07/08/2024

Secluded farm homestead on agriculture cultivated fields near Macquarie river in Dubbo town of Australia – aerial sunrise view.

IN the coming decade, Australia’s rural industries will be shaped by significant forces that have the potential to disrupt how we produce, market and consume agricultural goods.

A new report released by AgriFutures Australia and Tenacious Insights has identifed 10 key forces impacting Australian agriculture.
“By understanding these pivotal changes and preparing strategically, we can help deliver resilient and productive rural supply chains that are ready to build on the opportunities of tomorrow,” AgriFutures Australia managing director John Harvey said.

Ten key forces 

Navigating a Future of Cross-Sectoral Forces updates previous work investigating the forces impacting Australian agriculture, and has been developed to provoke conversation and debate by exploring a range of plausible futures.
These are underpinned by 10 major forces, which include:
  1. The rise of artificial intelligence
    Artificial intelligence is poised to trigger major, unpredictable changes in the way that rural sectors operate — from customer integration to risk mitigation.
  2. Mandatory climate disclosures
    Climate and nature-related disclosures are no longer a ‘nice to have’ as bodies – from trade regulators to financial institutions – consider them when determining factors like market access, interest rates, insurance premium costs and mortgage eligibility.
  3. Radically accessible remote production data
    Accessible remote information, such as satellite imagery, combined with the ease of information sharing creates opportunities for rural industries to better share their story.
  4. Geoengineering advances
    Tools to alter regional temperature, precipitation and other environmental factors will impact rural industries, however the ethics, impact and economics of this are still to be determined.
  5. From incremental to systemic changes in production systems
    While the current RD&E system is excellent at supporting incremental changes, in the future there will be pressures that fundamentally challenge traditional production systems.
  6. Global conflict and deglobalisation shift trade trends
    While there remains considerable demand for both raw commodities and finished goods, conditions have become more precarious in recent years, making demand from key partners less predictable and at risk of severe price fluctuations and market access concerns.
  7. Growing risks from climate, human and animal interactions
    Humans, agriculture and wildlife will interact more, potentially leading to a greater incidence of disease outbreak and other pressures where improved detection and prevention is crucial.
  8. Escalation of cybersecurity threat
    Rural industries, and their supply, are creating more data than ever, with more information being stored virtually creating an increased vulnerability to cyber threats.
  9. Rare earth mineral demand growth
    As rural sectors become technologically advanced, they could be especially vulnerable to an abrupt change in access to, or the price of, rare earth-containing products.
  10. Climate refugees emerge
    As severe weather trends escalate, the potential for climate refugees increases, with the Global South particularly vulnerable. This situation will impact rural industries, creating challenges related to policies, commodity demand and labour.
Managing Partner, Tenacious Insights, Sarah Nolet, who authored the report, said horizon scanning is not about predicting the future, but exploring a broad range of possibilities to better prepare rural industries for what comes next.
“The scenarios and forces presented in the report are designed to provoke novel and unexpected ideas, inspire innovation, and encourage a rethinking of research priorities across rural industries,” Ms Nolet said.

“So, while useful for producers and the wider supply chain, this report is aimed at stakeholders in the Australian agricultural research, development and extension community, plus policymakers. It aims to inform and guide the strategic decisions that will shape the future of rural industries in Australia.”

“By considering not only existing challenges and opportunities, and their current trajectories, but also emerging and future trends and how they are likely to collide, Navigating a Future of Cross-Sectoral Forces offers a clearer perspective on possible issues, helping to facilitate proactive engagement at a regional, national and global level.”

Source: Agrifutures Australia. The full Navigating a Future of Cross-Sectoral Forces report is available on the AgriFutures Australia website.

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