AUSTRALIA’S beef exports in May surged to their third highest volume level on record, reaching 129,478 tonnes.

The number was the largest May tonnage ever seen, and it means that the three largest monthly shipment volumes on record have all been seen in the past 12 months. Only July and October last year have shown larger in-month trade volumes, with October’s record reaching 130,048t

The 2025 year-to-date is at all time record-setting pace, and short of some major climatic or market access disaster, is setting the industry up for record-rivalling annual shipments by the end of December.

Shipments to all export markets for the January-May five month period have reached 567,625 tonnes, up 15pc on the same period last year.

Tariff impact

The big question on everybody’s minds in latest trade data is how much impact the recent tariff wars, especially those between the US and China, have had on Australia’s recent export beef performance.

The simple answer is ‘some’, but the full effect of 45pc tariffs on US beef into China is yet to be seen in coming months. In fact technically, US beef sold pre-April 10 could still arrive in China as late as 22 May, while escaping the full tariff effect.

The United States continues to bid away large chunks of Australia’s export beef production, in the face of dwindling domestic supply.

As US packers struggle with record high cattle prices and compressed margins, the past four weeks has seen US fed cattle slaughter (everything bar non-fed cows and bulls) down 113,000 head or 6pc from a year ago, and 7.5pc lower than the same period two years ago. Domestic cow/bull slaughter (manufacturing meat) was less than 400,000 head, down 9pc from the already low levels of last year and 33pc lower than two years ago.

That statistic alone largely explains the booming trade volumes now being seen from Australia to the US.

May exports to US east and west coast ports reached 38,431t, up 3pc on the previous month, and 23pc higher than May last year.

While still well short of the recent-era monthly record of 47,000t set in October, it’s still a very large volume month, by any standards. It also suggests that the 10pc additional tariff imposed under Trump’s ‘retaliatory’ measures back on 10 April has had virtually zero impact on Australian beef exports to the US, so far.

Calendar year to date, Aussie trade into the US is now at 167,700t, up 32pc on the same five months last year.

As widely anticipated, China has jumped into second place last month for Australian export volume, as the effect of 45pc tit-for-tat tariffs on US beef take full effect.

Our exports to China last month reached 23,877t, up 11pc on the previous month, and a massive 55pc higher than May last year. Calendar year to date, Australian exports to China are now at almost 102,000t, up 33pc on the same five months a year ago.

How much of that is displacement of former US beef? Hard to say, but there’s a significant difference in the range of cuts and qualities traditionally exported by the US and Australia into China, meaning it’s not simply like-for-like replacement.

Japan was a fair way behind China last month as an export customer, taking 19,800t, down 8pc on the month before, and 22pc behind May last year. Year-to-date trade into Japan is now at almost 96,000t, back 11pc on last year.

Similarly, South Korea was down 13pc last month compared with April, to 17,400t. Year-to-date, Korea is up 12pc to 82,200t.

Why were Japan and Korea both down last month for Australian imports, compared with April? We asked around the trade, and the best explanation we can come up with is that it represents displacement of US beef that was previously going onto China, that is now being re-directed into Japan and Korea because of the tariff differences (US now =45pc into China since April’s tariff wars). That’s made US beef look ‘relatively’ cheaper in the Japan/Korean markets than in China.

Smaller and emerging markets

Indonesia remains a strong southeast Asian customer for Australian beef, taking just over 6000t last month, much the same as the month before, but 11pc below May last year. Year-to-date, Indo has taken 22,900t of muscle meat and trim, but the country remains easily Australia’s largest offal export market (see earlier 2024 off trade summary).

Next largest by volume last month was Canada, importing 5041t, up 52pc on the previous month and 139pc higher than last year – making the North American country one of Australia’s fastest growing export clients in the past 12 months. Year-to-date volume has reached 15,465t, up 40pc.

Rounding out the top ten last month were the Philippines (3123t in May, up 9pc on April and 54pc year-on-year); Taiwan 3065t (up 21pc on April and 10pc YoY); Thailand 2162t (down 17pc, but up 41pc on last year); and the United Kingdom (1808t, up 99pc on April, and +158pc on May last year).

The UK has now accounted for 4600t of Aussie beef so far in 2025, up 104pc on last year.

The ‘other’ category (mostly Middle Eastern and North African countries) took 8689t last month, 2pc higher than April but 1pc lower than last year.