THE cattle industry is now one-third of the way through the calendar year, and we’ve hardly seen a ‘normal’ week, let alone month, in cattle markets.

About the only thing that has been stable has been cattle prices, that have done well to navigate a steady path through the chaos around them.

This chart shows the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) in cents per kilogram (c/kg) carcase weight.

Markets started the year strongly in January, but that wasn’t really a true indication, with some northern works still closed while feedlots chased cattle that were put away at year’s end as feeder prices fell away.

Tough seasonal conditions limited restocking interest with it remaining dry in the South and with the northern wet season failing to develop after much early promise.

February very hot and dry

As we moved into February the weather stayed very hot and dry leading to producer’s offload cattle as water reserves dwindled nation-wide, forcing rates down. Despite international meat values continuing to rise through the month, processors were full booked with cattle as the northern wet season showed no sign of arriving.

By this stage feedlots were full of cattle and, forget about the restockers, they found the air conditioner and better things to do than chase cattle as temperatures soared above the mid-40s.

The northern wet season arrived with a vengeance in mid-February causing havoc across the far North and providing some relief for central and southern areas but by no means ensuring their season.

Markets began to take on a familiar shape with premiums emerging for market-ready cattle and cattle that ticked the boxes for feeding with discounts widening for off-bred types and cattle that didn’t quite fit anywhere.

Down south, lotfeeders and processors were having trouble finding cattle with weight. Throughout all this time the weaner sales carried an undertone of optimism as producers recognised strong beef market fundamentals would prevail once markets returned to ‘normal’.

Start of March sees further tightening across southern areas extending into central NSW

March provided its own challenges. The start of March was dry and pasture conditions tight with fodder crops failing in the February heat through northern and central NSW.

Markets continued to be under the influence of dry conditions and low water reserves providing for a good supply of cattle of most descriptions. Even some agents in Queensland were reporting that stock water was becoming an issue with the lack of runoff rain in many districts.

Western and southern NSW, VIC, SA, WA & Tassie were all looking for strong early break to limit forced cattle sales. Even so, many of these areas were well down on numbers as most stock had been turned off early or had left the area to go to feedlots or to other backgrounders.

While Queensland feedlots were full, southern feedlots were struggling to find suitable heavy weight feeders and were bidding up prices for well-bred black steers. Many QLD feedlots were no quote through early March and an Indicative 370c/kg for a flatback, Angus feeder steers had pushed up over 400c/kg to around 420c/kg, restoring the 50c/kg liveweight premium that had disappeared in late 2024 and into January as QLD feedlots chased cattle to fill pens.

Slaughter cattle markets fluctuated, particularly cows as higher prices saw southern producers rush to saleyards to grab the higher prices allowing processors to fill slaughter schedules and pull back rates, week to week fluctuations of up to 50c/kg liveweight were not uncommon on cows.

Restockers markets remained uncertain, although well-bred weaners continue to attract interest into the mid-440c/kg range.

By mid-March we are dealing with cyclones, floods

By the end of the first week of March though markets were about to get another jolt with southern QLD and northern NSW processors bracing for Cyclone Albert which finally made landfall and caused chaos for the northern beef export supply chain.

With ports closed and cold storages full, processors had no than option than to shutdown kill chains. It’s estimated that at least a full week of processing was lost which backed-up supplies all the way through the supply chain.

Feedlots couldn’t empty pens and cattle purchased in February were being fed in holding yards waiting for kill chains to start moving so feedlots could empty pens.

While the Cyclone caused much chaos, it didn’t deliver the benefits it promised for many producers with the rainfall barely extending inland and leaving many areas dry and still looking for follow-up rain.

Conditions remained particularly tight through central NSW, all the way through Victoria, SA and Tassie with producers across WA’s south-west, The Great Southern and south coast running out of stock water and getting more desperate by the week.

Finally, some relief in WA

In mid-March it started to rain in WA with southern areas that had run out of water receiving drought-breaking rain taking the pressure off livestock markets across the state.

How quickly it can turn around, after a month of solid rainfall in WA, anywhere south of Wongan Hills conditions are near ideal and get better as you head south and east.

The Lakes area in south-east WA is off to its best start to a winter cropping season in living memory. This is a huge relief for southern WA livestock operators who have been feeding livestock for the past two low rainfall years and have had trouble booking in livestock as the state battled processing capacity issues amid the phasing out of the live export trade.

Looking back east, and by the end of March, we were dealing with a massive amount of rainfall mainly in the north, north-west and western QLD which caused major flooding, stock losses and damage to infrastructure (roads and fences).

This led to issues with moving cattle around QLD for at least a few weeks and in some cases will extend into months especially in the far west and channel country.

In NSW, good rain up to 200mm was received in the northwest from Bourke through to Tamworth and Gunnedah. Lower totals of up to 50mm were received through the central west, Coonamble and Dubbo and east and into the Hunter Valley.

Draw a line from Parkes to Molong and into Sydney and anywhere north is good, but south of this line, rainfall totals were very disappointing for southern areas of the central west and parts of the central tablelands and far west NSW.

East coast is the have’s and have nots

By the end of March, half the east coast was in good shape with fodder crops jumping out of the ground and producers in a position to make commercial decisions rather than decisions based on feed reserves while the other half were battling mounting feed and water issues and probably weren’t all that bothered about Trump being Trump.

On 2 April, so called ‘Liberation Day’, Trump announced a sweeping range of global tariffs that looks set to cause the biggest upheaval to global trading arrangements since World War 2.

But by 10 April, in response to stock and bond markets being in free-fall, Trump said he would temporarily lower tariffs he had just imposed for three months; while further ramping up pressure on China which is currently facing a 254pc tariff on goods exported to the US, as Trump seeks to draw China to the negotiating table.

Australian beef is still subject to the 10pc global tariff on all good and services exported to the US.

While it is difficult to be definitive, and the market is still dealing with tariff free product (on the water prior to 2 April, four-week sailing time) still arriving in the US, it appears as though Australian exporters will pass the cost of the tariff to US importers.

Since the announcement, imported Australian 90CL prices into the US have roughly risen about the size of the tariff. However, trade uncertainty continues to limit out-front sales as the US lean beef complex adjusts to the changing trade environment.

US domestic lean beef prices have been falling as the market adjusts to US product that would have been exported to China being diverted to the domestic grinding meat market.

April markets still sorting through tariffs and short processing weeks

While the US market is still sorting itself out, Australian exporters are reporting a pick-up in interest from China. US themed BBQ style restaurants in China, once freezers are empty of US brisket, are reportedly having to replace it with Australian product which is 40pc cheaper and after testing with their customers is ‘just as good’.

These changes in trade flows will see global markets adjust and may even push Australian beef export returns higher than before.

Meanwhile local livestock markets have been volatile due to supply issues and the run of short weeks around Easter and Anzac Day. Cattle markets were a bit easier as stock movements started to flow across QLD and processors became more comfortable about accessibility of supply.

Recent saleyard action has been described as erratic as supplies fluctuate with slaughter cattle bearing the brunt of volatility.

Conditions across the south remain a key contributor with many simply having to offload non-core breeding stock as stock water reserves diminish. Feeder and restocker markets though are starting to take shape with good quality weaners and forward store cattle starting to meet consistent demand from northern restockers. This will help put a floor in prices for southern store cattle.

As one agent said, April markets were ‘harder to pick than a broken nose.’ But once we are through Anzac week and processors return to full working weeks, expect southern markets to start to build-in a premium for slaughter weight cattle and suitable feeder cattle with a shortage of cattle of weight across the south.

This will encourage southern processors to head north and pay the freight bill to drag QLD cattle south.

Southern processor activity will provide competition in northern markets which should see prices start to grind higher as markets return to ‘normal’ through May. The major risk appears to be outside market influences such as lower global growth which could cap beef export market returns if the US/China trade war persists.