WEATHER – or more accurately the prospect of it – is again providing the underpinnings for slaughter cattle supply and demand this week.

This eight-day BOM forecast released this morning shows solid falls of 25-100mm across a large expanse of Central and Southern Queensland and northwestern NSW cattle country between now and 20 October.

Click on BOM Inage for a larger view

This follows an earlier weather event a fortnight earlier that delivered encouraging falls across large parts of Victoria and eastern regions of SA.

Anticipation of northern rain was clearly evident at Roma store sale this morning, where the offering was slashed in half to just 4700 head. The market lifted 20-30c/kg for steers and 5-10c on prime cows, and higher in places.

The upcoming forecast has already had a distinct impact, with some (but not all) Queensland processors electing to lift grid rates by 10c/kg this morning, anticipating tightening supply if it delivers. That comes just a week after we wrote in last week’s column that several large Queensland processors were deliberately remaining ‘current’ in their forward bookings, concerned that securing priced cattle too far forward might look expensive, if dry weather continued.

That’s now heft a few operators short for the back half of October.

Other large Queensland processors have not yet adjusted rates, suggesting the rain still had to eventuate, and that an inch would not go far in the current conditions, without follow-up.

Best direct consignment rates seen this morning for upcoming kills in southern Queensland included heavy cows 730-740c/kg and 820-830c on four-tooth grassfed heavy steer (best of those rates for HGP-free only). Some of those rates are 10c higher than last week.

Central Queensland rates are 20c behind those numbers, with some plants also 10c better than last week.

Some NSW export processors continued to operate in Queensland over the past week, despite a freight cost to get cattle home spiralling higher due to fuel prices.

In southern regions, high freight costs out of Queensland has intensified competition for local cattle, now coming forward in greater numbers.

In southern NSW, one set of grids is showing 800c/kg on heavy cows and 880c/kg on four-tooth grass ox this morning, up 20c on last week. Eastern regions of South Australia have offers of 760-780c on cows and 830-850c on grass ox, mostly unchanged on this time last week.

Saleyards channel

Gunnedah sale this morning yarded 2300, much the same as last week, with the market generally stronger. Cows were 5-10c dearer and more in places. Score 3 cows sold from 368-390c/kg, with score 4 heavy cows to 413c.