A monthly column written for Beef Central by US meat and livestock markets commentator Steve Kay, publisher of US Cattle Buyers Weekly

I HAVE just returned to writing about the US beef industry and markets for the first time in three months. A rapidly deteriorating right hip forced me to stop working in mid-June and then I needed to start recuperating after hip replacement surgery in early August.

To witness the events of these three months was both revealing and sobering, on both the political and market levels.

On a positive note, US retail beef prices declined in August after increasing in July from June. This caused sales to grow by 1.2pc, more than the 0.8pc increase that was forecast.

The latter price increased from US$10.45/lb in June. USDA’s All Fresh beef price in August averaged US$9.64/lb, down from US$9.75 in July. The latter price had increased from US$9.64 in June.

The August price declines were positive for sales but were still 4pc to 5pc above average prices in August 2025. In addition, the August All Fresh beef price was nearly five times higher than August’s average chicken price of US$2.01/lb and nearly twice as high as pork’s average price of US$4.89/lb.

Meanwhile, the three months saw sharp declines in cash live cattle prices. The Five-Area steer live price the second week of September averaged US$222/cwt, while the dressed price averaged US $350/cwt. These were US$33.71/cwt and US$53.95/cwt, respectively, below prices of the week ended June 7.

The June prices were just shy of the record prices for the year set in mid-May. The 15pc decline since then was one of the largest in years for the time period and larger than analysts had forecast.

In contrast, boxed beef cutout values fell only 4.2pc from the first week of June until the second week of September, when the national weekly comprehensive cutout averaged US$377/cwt, versus US $394/cwt the first week of June.

The weekly USDA Choice cutout averaged US$375.60/cwt, versus US $392  the first week of June. This small decline and the much larger decline in cattle prices allowed fed beef processors to return to having positive operating margins.

Cattle slaughter levels at historically low levels, as ICE action impacts labour

Unfortunately, this has not meant any recovery in cash live cattle prices. Plant closures and packers’ determination to maintain positive margins continue to keep weekly cattle slaughter levels at historically low levels.

Total slaughter the third week of September was an estimated 529,000 head, versus an actual total of 559,370 head the same week last year. Total slaughter the following week was expected to be 533,000 head but came in at an estimated 484,000 head after immigration action by ICE in south-west Kansas during the week caused a high rate of absenteeism at three major beef processing plants.

The ICE action prompted the Texas Cattle Feeders, the Kansas Livestock and the Oklahoma Cattlemen’s Associations to put out a lengthy statement criticising the action.

The three groups respected the responsibility of federal agencies to enforce the law, they said. At the same time, US cattle producers, feedyards, dairies, livestock markets, processors and other rural businesses depended on a stable workforce to care for animals, protect food safety and keep the supply chains operating.

Sudden workforce disruptions can create immediate animal welfare, operational, and economic consequences that extend well beyond an individual business.

These ICE operations are having a massive chilling effect on the legal, documented, skilled workers that put beef on the table and keep the US cattle supply chain moving, said the groups.

Additionally, these types of disruptions will lead to higher beef prices for US consumers. Reported impacts to the organisations throughout the past few days have been:

• Thousands of fed cattle slated for shipping to processors now delayed, resulting in millions of dollars in lost revenue and additional costs
• Workforce disruptions at numerous supply chain chokepoints such as feedyards, dairies, processors, feed and grain companies, transportation hubs, and community services.

These disruptions come at a time of enhanced focus and pressure on the US cattle and beef supply chain. They are a costly and unnecessary impact to cattle producers already suffering from unwelcome political interference to both the markets as well as the physical supply chain.

Frustratingly, the harm these actions cause to cattle producers last for days and weeks after such operations conclude, they said.

US beef imports under scrutiny

On another note of contention, a small group of White House officials is exploring whether to cut back President Donald Trump’s decision to dramatically increase foreign beef imports, as Republican panic rises ahead of the mid-terms elections in November.

In late August, Trump announced a 90-day window for tariff-free beef imports totalling up to 300,000t, the primary beneficiary of which was Brazil.

The proposal to reduce the amount of imports is being discussed within the Domestic Policy Council headed by Vince Haley, a longtime Trump speechwriter and former campaign official, and a few other officials at the White House.

That is according to two people with direct knowledge of the conversations, who were granted anonymity to share private details with Politico. The White House and USTR, in statements after Politico’s story was published, denied there was any official action on the table.

The bottom line seems to be that the White House claims it is helping producers and consumers, but the opposite seems to be the case.