THE recent surge in the value of the Aussie dollar has taken some of the gloss off lean manufacturing meat price movements into the United States.

The A$ traded as high as US73c on Monday, its highest level since April 2022, and up around US4c or 5.8pc since the start of April.

The currency’s rise was supported by a combination of robust risk sentiment and increased interest rate support following the Reserve Bank’s interest rate hike on Monday, combined with a broad‑based push higher in key commodities, notably copper, iron ore and gas.

A rising currency value adds headwinds for Australian beef exports, with most business around the world conducted in US$.

Some financial analysts have the A$ rising to US75c by the end of this year, pointing to the combination of higher interest rates and a big improvement in the terms of trade driven by higher commodity prices. The US dollar is expected to become less attractive as investors look for better value in other currency markets, including Australia.

Because Australia was a net seller of energy, it had gained from the global energy shock that has sent oil prices from $US70 above $US100 a barrel, analysts said this week.

Meat market impact

Australian imported manufacturing meat values into the US are showing the impact of the recent currency movement.

Measured in A$ terms, the most recent quoted 90s quoted price of $11.35/kg is down $1.72/kg or 13pc from its November record high of $13.07/kg.

Measured in US$, last week’s imported 90s figure of US$3.71/lb is down only US11.5c or 3pc from the November high.

US beef imports are expected to hit a new record high this year, accounting for more than 20 percent of all beef consumed in the US in  2026.

April shipments from Brazil exceeded 37,000t, the highest volume so far this year, while imports from Australia were 41,174t. Additionally, the US is importing higher volumes from second-tier exporters like Argentina and Paraguay, even with a 26.4pc tariff penalty, plus meat imports from Mexico in place of the live cattle import ban.

Domestic US beef production, especially for cows, continuing to trend downwards, driven not only by limited supply but by very poor (read negative) margins in US processing. See today’s separate item on US processing giant Tyson’s projected US$500m loss this financial year in beef, and JBS’s poor first quarter performance.

Imported beef market commentary provided by Steiner Consulting says US cow prices last week were at their highest level on record, even when adjusted for inflation.

“The average carcase value of 90CL cutter cows in April was US$298/cwt, 19pc higher than a year ago,” Steiner said.

“In the fall of 2014 during the previous drought, cow values hit $291/cwt, in today’s dollars. The beef cow herd at the start of the year was the lowest in some 70+ years.”

“The record culling that took place between 2022 and 2024, largely due to drought, means that the herd is younger and thus more productive,” Steiner said.

“Add to this the record prices paid for calves and US cattle producers will continue to limit the number of cows they send to market.”

“Drought and lack of feed during the summer months may force cow-calf operators to sell anyway, but we are not at that point yet. The first USDA report tracking pasture conditions noted that 30pc of the nation’s grazing country was in good/excellent condition and 31pc was in poor/very poor condition.

Compare this with last year when 33pc was good/excellent and 33pc poor or very poor.

“Northern hemisphere spring rains usually cause pastures to get better in late May and June. This will be an important metric to track in the next few weeks,” Steiner suggested.

In the last three months, Australian chilled beef exports to the US have averaged 25pc above year ago levels, as quality domestic beef supply wanes. Early projections put Australia’s May US shipments at a little over 43,000t.

With Brazil currently focussed on its quota/tariff challenges in China, the expectation among US market participants is that Brazil will have more beef to sell to the US in the third quarter, after it fills its 2026 China quota.

“ABIEC, the association representing Brazilian exporters, sent out a social media message saying they think Brazilian beef exports may be down 10pc in 2026,” Steiner’s weekly report said.

“Based on the pace of shipments and what Brazil is shipping to the US and other markets, it appears to us that exports in 2026 will be at or slightly higher than last year, with lower prices likely to maintain the flow into export channels.”