Source: Elders. Click on image fort a larger view.

AFTER 40 years as the principal supplier of imported beef to the United States, Australia has been tipped-out of the top position in recent months by Brazil.

As can be seen in this graph using US Department of Agriculture figures, Brazil’s exports to the US this year have grown dramatically, driven by the big deficit in US domestic beef production as the US herd hits 70 year lows, and adjustments to tariff terms made by US president Donald Trump.

March exports from Brazil to the US reached 61,000t (measured as carcase weight equivalent, not boneless) compared with 54,000t cwe from Australia. January and February exports showed a similar trend.

The graph clearly shows a large spike in US imports from Brazil each January since 2024, which represents bonded product built up in cold storage during the latter stages of the prior year, which is then released for the new quota year. The difference this year, however, is that Brazil’s volume advantage has hung on.

Brazil operates under a tightly restricted ‘Other Country’ quota into the United States, filling the entire available quota for this calendar year by 6 January. For the remaining 11 months of the year, a 26.4pc out-of-quota tariff applies.

The ‘Other Country’ quota used by Brazil and a group of other South American countries was already small at just 65,000 tonnes, but in January US President Trump took the surprise step of taking 13,000t from the quota and granting it specifically to the United Kingdom, in exchange for a reciprocal access for US beef into the UK.

Effectively, that reduced the ‘Other Country’ quota used by Brazil and others this year to just 52,000t.

However President Trump recently flagged a temporary removal of tariffs on imported beef – a move which is yet to receive official Executive Orders. Some observers now suggest the relaxation may not go ahead at all.

The graph above plots the steady growth in Brazilian beef imports to the US over the past three years. However this business has clearly come in addition to, rather than at the expense of beef trade out of Australia.

The likely triggering of Brazil’s 2026 quota into China in coming months could add further momentum to Brazil’s exports into the US for the remainder of the year, in order to escape China’s harsh 55pc out of quota tariff.

Unlike Australia which has options in other large, well-paying markets like Japan and South Korea, Brazil has fewer export options once China trade becomes more expensive in coming months.

“The Brazil tonnage is supplementing the reduction in US domestic production, and is gradually being accepted in more food service and manufacturing channels, but less-so in retail,” a meat trade source said on Friday.

“Low cow slaughter in the US has left a big hole for lean manufacturing beef for US hamburgers, which Brazil is now finding homes for. Almost all of it is in frozen form, rather than chilled.”

With some analysts now suggesting herd recovery in the US will take another three to five years, at best, Brazil is likely to occupy a considerable chunk of the US imported beef market for the considerable future.

Prices last week for Brazilian frozen 90CL manufacturing beef were around US$3.50/lb TIS (Transfer In Store, meaning delivered into the US east coast). Equivalent Australian 90s were making US$3.80/lb TIS the same day.