A SHARP contrast is emerging between slaughter cattle and feeder prices, relative to the lighter restocker descriptions which are currently falling rapidly in the saleyards system.

MLA’s processor cow indicator (all cows sold via NLRS-reported yards sold to processors, using a seven-day rolling average) have meatworks cows today at 377c/kg liveweight, down only 12c from the recent peak around 389c in early September.

Compare this with the restocker yearling steer indicator which has fallen more than 50c/kg this month to 481c/kg liveweight today, and the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator which has shed off 90c/kg (carcase weight equivalent) over the same period as dry weather starts to impact.

Strong final quarter for processing

Meat & Livestock Australia’s September Beef Projections Update released late last week has adjusted the forecast for adult cattle slaughter for the current calendar year from 9.3 million head in 2025 to 9.6m in 2026, before easing to 9.2m next year and 8.8m in 2028.

Average carcase weights are estimated at 313kg in 2026 and increasing next year as the slaughter mix shifts towards heavier steers and bullocks, and grainfed production continues to expand.

While anecdotally more southern states processors are now returning to five-day rosters and larger daily tallies as local slaughter-ready cattle supply starts to build post-winter, MLA weekly slaughter data (carrying some lag) is yet to reflect the trend.

The most recent national slaughter report for week ended 18 September shows a national seven-day kill of 143,482 head – the second lowest kill this year excluding public holiday impacted weeks and the January shoulder period.

While Queensland has maintained high levels of weekly throughput above 77,000 head this past month, southern states have slipped sharply due to local winter shortage. Victoria has averaged less than 23,000 for the past three weeks, compared with +25,000 head for the equivalent three weeks back in July.

Southern states numbers are expected to grow through October as more local cattle, and relatively few out of Queensland due to ever-higher fuel and transport costs, arrive on Victorian and NSW processing rosters.

Next week’s national slaughter tally will be significantly impacted by a King’s Birthday Monday holiday in Queensland, plus Labour Day holidays in NSW and South Australia. Barring Victoria’s Melbourne Cup Day holiday (the only gazetted holiday in the world celebrating a horse race) there’s now a clean run through to Christmas closures this year.

Dry weather across large parts of Queensland and into NSW, and no sign of relief on the horizon, is noticeably pushing more cattle through the saleyards system as September draws to a close.

Grainfed production providing a foundation

One of the features raised by several large processor contacts this week was the growing numbers of HGP-free grainfed cattle now being processed each week, in early preparation for the re-opening of the tariff- free China market from 1 January.

That has tended to reduce those processors’ requirements a little for grass cattle to fill remaining spots in the rail. Anecdotally though, China-eligible cold storage space in the Brisbane region is now close to capacity as frozen stocks start to build before shipments can start closer to the end of the year to avoid the harsh 55pc tariff ending 31 December.

Qld grids steady, southern states softer in places

In Queensland, there’s been little sign of changes to direct consignment slaughter grid offers this week.

Quotes kills in southern parts of Queensland for kills in coming weeks show 720c/kg on heavy cows and four-tooth grass bullock, 800c/kg (810c available on some grids for no HGP). Central Queensland rates are 20c behind those figures.

Worth noting, however, a number of operators in the northern region are seeking to remain quite current with bookings (in one case, only two weeks forward), for fear of being left with cattle on the books that might look expensive in a week or two, given mounting seasonal pressures.

“Cattle prices are still far overheated compared with the export meat job,” one large multi-site operator said last week.

After some falls of 20-30c/kg last week, we’ve seen grids steady in parts of southern NSW, with offers of 760c for cows and 830c on four-tooth ox. Similar price offers are being seen in eastern parts of SA.

Saleyards channel

Some saleyards have seen smaller yardings this week as vendors reacted to last week’s sharp price falls.

Gunnedah this morning yarded 2150, down more than 1000 on last week. All the regular buyers attended and operated to a dearer market. Heavy feeder steers much dearer 518-568c/kg. Medium feeder heifers much dearer 420-497c/kg. Cows were dearer with prime heavy drafts 370-397c/kg and score 2 and 3 cows 328-376c/kg.

Tamworth yesterday yarded 1554, down 660 on last week. All major buyers were present for a mostly stronger market. Yearling steers to feed were marginally dearer making 432-576c to average 534c/kg. Yearling heifers to feed were 20c cheaper and made 370-494c to average 442c. Score 2 cows to the processor made from 312-359c/kg, score 3s were 3c better making 348-382c/kg while the prime heavy score 4 cows held firm and made from 379-395c/kg.

Going against the trend was Roma this morning, where numbers jumped more than 2000 head to 7800. The yarding was mixed with light weaners showing the effects of the dry conditions. All the regular buyers attending but selective in their bidding. Yearling steers 400-480kg improved 7c/kg to make 542c to backgrounders and 536c/kg to lotfeeders. Grown steers 500-600kg improved almost 12c/kg to make 449c/kg to processors.