SPRING turnoff patterns are now well established across much of Eastern Australia, with the onset of hot, drier weather and forecasts of an El Nino event ahead prompting some vendors to push cattle out the gate.

Some Queensland export processors now hold solid direct consignment bookings out to the second week in October, as the unusually warm early spring gains momentum.

There’s been limited change in over-the-hooks slaughter cattle offers in the northern state this week, with quotes seen this morning for kills in the state’s southern region of 700c/kg on heavy cows and four-tooth grass ox 780c (some grids showing 790c/kg for HGP-free).

There’s been talk of 10c/kg rises for another Queensland processor’s plants, but we’ve been unable to confirm that at this point. Any amendments will be added here.

Last week, the concentration of export plants in Central Queensland showed some grids drifting further from comparative offers in the state’s southeast. That unusually large 30c spread has closed a little this week (moving to a more conventional 20c deficit), with best CQ offers seen of 770c on four-tooth ox and heavy cows 680c.

Generally across northern Australia, soil moisture is in decline and the run through to the traditional Christmas/New Year plant closures could now be dominated by weather and pasture condition.

BOM’s temperature forecasts suggest an 80pc chance of exceeding median daytime temperatures between now and the end of November, which if proven to be accurate, will sap pasture quality quickly. And other forecasters including Art Douglas and Eric Snodgrass are now all aligned with BOM on the likelihood of above average temperatures, stressed sub-soil moisture and less than 25pc chance of exceeding median rainfall over the next three months.

In Queensland, in areas north and west of Charters Towers, the run of cattle hitting the market due to conditions is now starting, with the northern end of Central Queensland perhaps a month or six weeks behind that cycle.

Central Australia cattle moving, after long weather delays

Elsewhere, there are now solid numbers of cattle moving out of Central Australia, after long delays caused by an unusually wet autumn and winter period. Those cattle are moving into plants all the way from the eastern portion of South Australia, into Victoria and NSW, as well as due east back into Queensland.

After the initial falls of rain some months ago, persistent showers of 10-20mm that followed kept Central Australian roads closed for months, in some cases, causing long turnoff delays. The result is ‘unbelievable’ weight in those Central Australian cattle now coming to market, several export processors said.

“We’re killing a lot of central Australian bullocks on the northern side of 400kg carcase weight this year,” one Queensland processor contact said. “And there’s been plenty of cows 315-325kg, up perhaps 20kg on what we would normally see, while bullocks could be anywhere from 40-50kg heavier than normal, by Central Australian standards. It’s all because they’ve been held up so long, on top of plenty of high quality feed.”

Overfatness had not really been a problem at this stage, two processors said.

On top of the weight, there’s been some particularly large runs of company-owned and privately held pastoral bullocks and cows out of the region – in places numbering 300-600 head.

Another ‘wave’ of cattle also likely to find their way to market soon are all the cattle pulled out of the northern and central NSW region due to drought early in the year, that found their way (either agistment or sale) into western NSW and southwestern Queensland, and as far as eastern regions of SA.

“With hot weather now approaching, either they are going to stay there over summer for turnoff early next year, or they are going to start hitting the slaughter market soon,” one processor buyer contact suggested.

“If it’s going to be hotter and drier than average, the latter is more likely,” he said. “Some will have to be gone by November due to temperatures, which leaves six weeks. After that date, they won’t be able to touch those cattle until March-April next year.”

“Not all of those cattle are necessarily slaughter types, but some will be. There was a huge number of New England and northern tablelands cows that went out there early in the year.”

In southern states, grids appear generally steady this week, with local grass supply now starting to trend higher in parts of southern NSW, and across into eastern regions of South Australia. Gippsland cattle were described as still a little behind that cycle, but producers there, also, are again ‘looking at the sky.’

Quotes seen for kills in southern NSW this week have heavy boner cows on a 780c/kg grid, and a four-tooth grass bullock (no HGP) on 850c/kg. Other grids had better quality MSA Angus cows on 810c, and good yearling MSA steer 0-2 teeth 910c/kg, with 890c for coloured steers.

Saleyards channel

Saleyards numbers generally grew in fixtures held early this week, as seasonal conditions continue to deteriorate across some regions

Roma added another 760 to last week’s offering, totalling 8300 this morning. A preliminary report (full report, including cows, published tomorrow) showed a softer price trend, with some descriptions losing up to 20-25c/kg. Yearling steers 200-280kg made to 570c/kg to backgrounders, while steers 280-330kg lost almost 35c/kg to make up to 532c to lotfeeders and 558c/kg to backgrounders. Yearling steers 400-480kg sold from 450-540c/kg to lotfeeders, while grown steers 400-500kg sold to 552c to average 539c/kg. Grown steers 500-600kg made 456c/kg to processors.

Wagga yarded 4520 yesterday, up 270 on last week. The quality of the cattle was good to excellent, across all breeds, particularly the heifer portion, carrying significant fat cover. The market displayed mixed price trends, with certain orders entering the sale midway, contributing to a slight uptick in the heifer sale. Trade cattle sold from 420-551c/kg, however the enthusiasm experienced last week was noticeably absent among processors. Medium-weight feeder steers saw a slight uptick in bidding as a few extra feedlots entered the market, helping keep a floor in prices. The bulk sold from 486-576c/kg. Feeder heifers faced weak demand and erratic bidding throughout the sale, with lighter weight feeder heifers selling 20c cheaper and medium-weights slipping by 17-27c, fetching 460- 534c/kg. In the export sale, feedlots dominated, purchasing the bulk of steers 500-600kg. This increased competition led to a price rise of 22c, with sales ranging from 484-573c/kg. Heavy steers and bullocks made from 430-493c/kg. Heavy cows slipped by 12c, making 394-448c/kg, with most sales less than 435c.

Tamworth yesterday yarded 1767, up 700 on last week. Light steers to the restocker were dearer as well as heavyweight and prime cattle with all other grades beginning to steady.  Prime yearling cattle to the trade topped at 540c/kg. Yearling steers to feed under 400kg were 35c cheaper and ranged from 536c to 598c/kg. Feeder steers +400kg improved in quality and were 5 to 7c dearer, making from 524-598c to average 566c. Prime grown cattle to the processor made to 462c/kg. Score 2 cows to the processor made from 310-355c, score 3s from 362-391c, and score 4 prime heavy cows made from 395-415c/kg.