CURRENTLY at opposite ends of the drought/recovery cycle, a yawning gap has emerged between slaughter cattle prices in the United States and those in Australia.
When measured in Australian currency, c/kg terms, the price gap has never been wider over the 12 year period covered in the graph below – published as part of Meat & Livestock Australia’s mid-year Industry Projections report.
As highlighted in this earlier article published last week, US cattle prices have soared to record levels over the last few months, as supply hits the wall, following last year’s (and continuing into early this year’s) devastating US drought.
It’s producing exactly the same effect that the Australian beef industry experienced in its own post-drought recovery period, last year and the year before.
As supply gained momentum, the first half of 2023 saw rapid declines in Australian cattle prices that stand in stark contrast with prices in other major beef exporters such as the US and South America. US fed steer prices have now reached record peaks, while South American prices have remained consistent, with strong import demand from China underpinning prices despite high inflation in their domestic markets.
Click on image for a larger view
In late May 2023, the spread between the US fed steer index and the Australian heavy steer index reached A304¢/kg, a new record for the relative gap between the two indexes. Normally running between 50–100c/kg, large price movements in Australia have driven prices well out of this range since late 2022.
Worth noting on the two graphs above and below, however, Australia has had two periods (2020-22, and briefly in 2016, during the previous drought/recovery cycle either side of the Pacific) when it enjoyed the highest slaughter cattle prices in the world (among major exporters, at least).
However, it’s also worth noting that this comparison is standardised in Aussie dollars, and would look somewhat different if measured in $US or other currency.
The rapid increase in the US cattle premium since mid-2022 (yellow line) is due to increases in US prices and the decline in Australian cattle prices (green line) occurring at the same time, MLA said in yesterday’s report.
“Although slaughter remains at higher-than-expected levels in the US, declines in the beef cattle herd have raised questions about future supply among US lotfeeders and packers, creating an incentive to secure supply quickly and inflating the price,” MLA said.
The situation is reversed in Australia, with relatively high cattle stocks and a widely held expectation that supply will increase over the next several years.
This dynamic has increased the spread at a fast pace, and in the next several months the US side of the split is likely to continue growing – live cattle futures suggest that prices will continue increasing through to the end of 2023 and into 2024.
US slow-down
Despite some improvement of pasture conditions in the US recently (see today’s separate story quoting JBS’s feedlot general manager James Palfreeman, recently returned from a visit to North America), US beef production remained higher than expected in the first half of 2023. In turn, this has kept American exports higher than expected and led to changes in 2023 forecasts.
In October, the US Department of Agriculture forecast American exports at 1.39 million tonnes carcase weight and imports at 1.52mt. By April this year, those forecasts were revised to 1.59mt and 1.42mt respectively.
This shift means the global market has slightly more beef available than previously expected.
“At the same time, high slaughter means that the American herd has likely shrunk beyond what the industry expected, extending the length of time required to rebuild the US herd and therefore, decreasing future supply and inflating demand,” MLA’s Projections said.
US beef and veal production for the first quarter of 2023 was 3.1mt – 3pc below Q1 2022 levels. Slaughter only fell by 1pc over the same period, to 8.3 million head.
As such, most of the difference between 2023 and 2022 comes down to lower US carcase weights, which have fallen by 2pc to an average of 374kg cwt.
In January, 14.2 million head of cattle were on feed in the US – 4pc below 2022 levels and the lowest level since 2017.
Relatively high feed prices have increased the cost of gain for US lotfeeders, and higher prices for feeder cattle have squeezed lotfeeder margins.
Slaughter remains majority female, driving down average US carcase weights. The US female slaughter rate for Q1 2023 was 52.6pc – well above the long-run average of 47pc. Moreover, declines in beef cow slaughter have been replaced by increases in dairy cow slaughter, and the rate of heifer slaughter remains stubbornly high.
“Although slaughter is falling, the stubbornly high US female slaughter rate indicates that the US herd remains in a destock phase and means that the capacity of the herd to expand is further attenuated,” MLA’s Projections said.
“Undoubtedly, US production this year has been higher than expected. The effect of this in the short term has been reduced demand in the global economy relative to expectations, and thus slightly lower prices than could have been expected,” the report said.
In January 2023, the US herd was 89 million head (the lowest since 2014) and the beef cow herd was 29 million head (the lowest since 1964).
“In the longer term, high female slaughter means that the US herd will continue to shrink, lengthening any future rebuilding and limiting US production for the next several years,” MLA’s Projections said.
Aussie prices now close to South America’s
The graphs published above also illustrate that declining Australian slaughter cattle prices are now closer to prices seen in South America than they have ever been, since 2015.
Since 2015, a relatively consistent premium between Australian and South American prices has been seen, with Australian prices closer to US prices.
This reflects Australian beef’s appeal in terms of market access, traceability and quality control, alongside a more stable currency than commonly seen in South America.
“Recent shifts have brought Australian prices much closer to Brazil and Argentina, though still with a slight premium,” MLA’s Projections said.
“There is an equivalent premium for Australian beef over South American beef at the export level, which has not been eroded so far this year. This suggests that the underlying advantage Australian beef enjoys in the international market has been retained, but factors in the Australian market are causing the price declines rather than a fundamental issue with global demand.”
The good news is that the price difference versus US will help Australian beef’s competitiveness on international markets, at a time of growing supply.
Not only is there a yawning gap between US and Australian cattle prices, there is a yawning gap between Australian retail beef and lamb prices and Australian livestock prices. Whilst Australian livestock prices for both beef and lamb have seen steep decreases, retail prices appear to be stubbornly resistant resulting in superprofits for retailers.
The industry desperately needs a tool such as a retail indicator price akin to livestock indicator prices to identify these issues and how the retail dollar is split in the supply chain. A model was developed years ago by the Australian Beef Association and the University of Tasmania to determine what proportion of the retail dollar producers received. Results suggested the producer received somewhere around 40-45% of the retail dollar and this was calculated over a number of periods. The model could have been adopted and improved to provide a useful tool to identify issues in the supply chain. I suspect the current measure would be closure to 20% than to 40% of the retail dollar!
There are a number of industry bodies claiming to represent primary producers and consumers of beef who I believe should be calling the supermarkets to account for their profit taking and lack of social responsibility here, but where are they? What have they got to say? They are seemingly unanimous in their silence! Producers need strong industry bodies that will stand up and be counted when the time comes but they are missing in action.
Many Australian households are desperate for relief from high prices and inflation but no one seems to be calling out the supermarket oligopoly on their profit taking and lack of social responsibility.
Interesting points, Andrew. As we wrote about earlier, however, it’s important to remember there is a considerable lag between (grainfed) beef being sold at retail today, and what the feedlots paid for the feeder steers earlier. For Woolworths and Coles 60-70 day grainfed beef being sold today, it reflects livestock (feeder) prices being paid four months ago (factor-in time on feed, transport to processing, slaughter and boning, MSA aging (5-21 days), packaging and distribution in retail form. Even worse for 100-day beef. Back in late February, NLRS says feeders were still worth close to 380c/kg. The same steer today is 312c/kg. So we’d suggest there is still a month or two more before retail prices can be expected to truly reflect current cattle pricing. We’ll circle back and have a look then. Editor
Thank you Editor, I look forward to a more robust analysis than I have managed to do, given the resources at your disposal. Of course I will point out that the EYCI has been in a downward trend since January 2022 (some 16 months ago) and in the case of the trade lamb indicator, since February 2023, some 4 months ago. A significant lag has already elapsed.
It is interesting how magically this lag period disappears in a rising livestock market!
Makes you wonder with the world population ever increasing, how could there be an over supply of cattle in Australia. There are plenty more mouths that need feeding.
More likely what we have is a lack of processing plants and the processors know it and take advantage of it. With government red tape strangling new entrants into the market.
Much like in 2013 when world beef prices were at record high levels, and Australian processors, booked out for six weeks ahead dropped the price that some said were akin to 1974 depression prices, all because they could while they made record profits. Such is the competitive processing market in Australia.