The Bureau of Meteorology’s forecast from August to October.

LONG range forecasts have again been called into question after a forecasted dry spring across the Eastern Seaboard has finished with record breaking rainfall.

Circulated on social media in recent days has been the rainfall forecast between the start of August and end of October, with the Eastern Seaboard covered in brown and given a low chance of exceeding the median rainfall.

However, October has been a very wet month for large parts of Queensland and Victoria – with parts of Central Qld recording the highest rainfall on record for the month. Other parts of Qld Victoria are still well above average.

Parts of New South Wales appear to have missed out on the rainfall, including a small area west of Tamworth which fell into the lowest on record decile. A large area west of Dubbo was also below average and the rest of the state was either average, above average and a small part in the north was very much above average.

Reaction reasonably subdued

Pressure is on the forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology this year, with an El Nino declared and large parts of the country potentially getting hot and dry weather as result.

The last time an El Nino was declared was in 2023 when the brown forecast maps became a major point of contention. Thousands of cattle came onto the market, the market collapsed and a good season across large parts of the Eastern Seaboard ensued.

Many at the time blamed the crash on the forecast, with frustration about sensationalist reporting of it and the use of such dramatic colours like brown to tell the story.

While there has been some commentary about the forecast circulating on social media in recent days, the reaction generally has been more subdued than 2023. One producer told Beef Central earlier this year that he was sensing a lot of other producers were moving away from BOM for weather forecasts.

To look at the post below from well-known Western Qld producer George Scott, the comments also suggest a lot of producers are not as reliant on these forecasts.

Operating in a drought prone region I have been for some years using long term forecasts to ‘weight’ business decisions. Not going well.

— George Scott (@NtDrifter) November 1, 2026

BOM has also been trying to tone down the rhetoric about the El Nino, repeatedly emphasising that it does not automatically mean that it will not rain.

What is BOM forecasting now?

A new long-range forecast has been released today, with BOM’s changing now forecasting high chance of exceeding the median rainfall from November the January for large parts of the Eastern Seaboard and Central Australia. The north and south-east of the country is forecast for dry weather.

The bureau also emphasised that a strong El Nino and positive Indian Ocean Dipole are underway.

“Strong El Nino events don’t necessarily mean stronger impacts for Australia, many factors influence our rainfall and as the climate warms more moisture in the atmosphere can increase the risk of heavy rain fall and flooding,” said Dr David Wilson, a hydrologist at BOM.

• Beef Central has asked BOM why the forecast was inaccurate and what is driving its forecast for more rain. Readers will be updated with a response we receive.