WHILE volume has remained reasonably high, there’s been a dramatic shift in destination for Australian beef exports during the month of July, mostly linked to the impact of tariffs and quotas in key markets like China and South Korea.
Total volume to all export markets last month reached 143,962 tonnes, down 2pc on June trade, and 6000t or 4pc behind July last year, which was close to record high at above 150,000t.
Given the record-setting momentum seen in export trade during the first half of 2026, it’s no surprise that calendar year-to-date volume now sits at 949,300t, up close to 97,000t or 11pc on the same seven months last year.
At the same time, Australian beef production has hit a mid-winter low-point for the year, with last week’s national kill reported by NLRS at 142,600 the lowest since the start of the season in January (holiday impacted weeks excepted). Rates of slaughter, especially in southern states, have been in a steady decline since mid-May, and are now well behind in weekly year-on-year comparisons.
All other things remaining the same, less production equals less beef available for export, which explains a little of last month’s soft decline.
But it’s where the beef has gone that is this last month’s trade story.
Historically one of Australia’s key volume markets since 2018, trade into China collapsed last month – the first to reflect the full impact of recent tariff changes (see background below). Volume to China in July reached only 6458t, down five-fold from almost 31,000t this time last year.
As far as we can determine, all trade into China last months was exposed to the harsh 55pc out of quota tariff, imposed as part of China’s 205,000t annual quota set at the start of this year. Other exporters including Brazil were also exposed to much tighter quotas this year (and the two years to follow), but Australia was the first to trigger its tariff for the year, back on June 18.
What’s perhaps surprising is the volume of beef that did, in fact, continue to enter the China market. Trade sources say customers seeking higher value items including Wagyu are prepared to cop the 55pc tariff in order to keep their menus intact – perhaps with a little margin support from Australia suppliers.
Due to earlier strong rates of trade, calendar year-to-date exports to China remains strong, at 147,400t, down only about 8pc on the same period last year.
It was widely anticipated in the trade that the United States would be the major destination for beef being defaulted out of China after the quota triggered, but that has not really been apparent – partly because of the drop in overall export volume last month.
Exports to US East and West Coast ports last month reached 47,988t, down 2.5pc from the previous month, but almost 5000t or 11pc higher than July last year. Calendar year to date volume to the US has reached 291,215t, some 45,000t or 18pc higher than the same seven months last year, as US domestic beef production remains severely impacted by a beef herd at 70-year lows.
Japan has been another key customer helping absorb some of the slack from the big decline in shipments into China last month. Japanese customers took 26,135t of Australian beef in July, almost 9pc higher than the previous month, and 11pc higher than July last year.
Year-to-date Japan trade has reached 150,402t, up 7pc on last year.
While Australia triggered its 2026 tariff into South Korea back on 23 July, the full extent of the impact of the additional 24pc out-of-quota tariff will not be seen until August shipment data arrives (published here in early September). In fact July’s hefty numbers reflect shipments being rushed into the market ahead of the trigger date, to escape the extra tariff, and to some extent, trade diversion out of China.
Korea last month took 29,068t of Australian chilled and frozen beef, down a little from the record monthly volume of 32,599t seen a month earlier, but still unusually large by historic standards.
After some huge trading months into the destination during May and June as the market anticipated the tariffs arrival, this year’s Korean quota triggered 54 days earlier than in 2025 (mid-September), and months earlier than 2023-24.
Year-to-date, Korea has taken more than 171,000t of Australian beef – about 20,000t more than near neighbour, Japan – and a record for the period. The same period back a year ago saw volume at just over 122,00t – representing a 49,000t or 40pc rise.
Emerging markets
Other emerging and secondary markets for Australian beef produced mixed results last month.
Canada continues to perform strongly, taking 5400t, up 15pc on June, and July last year. For the year to date, Canada has reached a record just short of 30,000t, up close to 5000t on last year.
Indonesia produced its best monthly volume in some time, taking 4180t of Australian beef in July. That’s up from 3400t a month earlier, but 2336t or 36pc behind July last year, when trade was still brisk, despite advancing Brazilian imports.
Indo’s volume for the year, mostly frozen, sits just short of 20,000t, some 16,000t or 45pc behind volumes seen last year.
Australia’s high quality chilled cuts trade into the United Kingdom is now being supplemented with a little frozen trimmings for hamburgers, and volumes continue to tick along. Last month trade reached 1626t, and for the year to date, 13,400t, up 4700t or 55pc on last year. Still heavily constrained, trade into the EU region last month sat at just 711t, down 14pc on last year.
The collection of seven Middle Eastern markets continue to perform favourably, despite sea-freight challenges due to the Hormuz conflict. Last month saw shipments total 5417t, similar to June, but 58pc higher than July last year. For the year to date, trade to the Middle East by sea or air has reached 24,500t, up about 3000t on last year.
Australian exporters have done a remarkable job of maintaining logistics into the Middle East region, despite trying circumstances.
Quota/tariff situation
For those who may not have been following recent quota tariff developments:
China activated a 55pc tariff on Australian beef for the remainder of the year, having hit the 205,000t quota for 2026 back on June 18. China surprised all beef exporting countries serving the market back in early January imposing 55pc out of quota tariffs for the next three years, on reduced beef quotas. The purpose was to attempt to protect the domestic Chinese beef industry. Australia, and to a lesser extent Brazil, are the worst affected. The affect has been to push more Australian beef into alternate markets, including the US, Japan, and elsewhere.
Australia’s annual beef quota into South Korea filled unusually early this year, on 23 July, adding an additional 24pc to importers’ costs for Australian beef in the market for the remainder of the year. The quota has filled most years for the past decade – albeit later in the year – and importers and exporters have typically managed to work out a plan to share the tariff burden.
As a producer of beef in Alberta I would think that our government would want to stand behind our farmers. They don’t care what happens to their own producers. Agriculture is one of the highest employment industries. Farm hands, truckers, livestock actions, packing plants etc. Once our farmers are gone then look at the price of beef go up.