FEEDER cattle grids have surged 30-50c in the past fortnight as the main saleyard indicators reach heights not seen since 2022.

And prominent market analyst Simon Quilty from Global Agritrends says there is a lot more upside left in the market, as he believes Angus feeder steer prices could go to 720c/kg or higher by October next year. (more on that further down this article)

Buyers who spoke to Beef Central this morning were quoting 400kg+ flatback feeder steers on the Darling Downs between 515-520c/kg – up about 40c on the last feeder cattle market report.

Southern Angus prices are continuing on their upward trajectory, with quotes between 550-560c/kg given to Beef Central this morning. Anecdotal reports suggest some Angus quotes have been as high 580-600c/kg this afternoon.

A public holiday in all states except Queensland and Western Australia has meant some regular contributors to this report could not be contacted.

It has also meant there were no sales at Tamworth, Forbes or Wagga this morning.

Saleyard prices back to 2022 levels

Meat & Livestock Australia’s saleyard-based feeder steer indicator is now at its highest point since 2022, opening this week at 519c/kg – which is up 22c on the previous week. The heavier, 400kg+, end of that indicator is 5c dearer at 524c/kg.

Numbers have contracted significantly at the Dubbo saleyards in the past month, with good falls and seasonal changeover largely attributed to that slide. Only 43 heavy feeder steers were offered at Dubbo last Thursday, with an average of 538c/kg.

AuctionsPlus was slightly dearer again, with an 85pc clearance 697 heavy feeder steers, averaging 550c/kg – a 3c rise.

Some buyers told Beef Central this morning that they believe the prices could bring some more cattle to market as a big yarding is pencilled in for Roma tomorrow, with 10,500 head on the draw.

Concerns about margins from lotfeeders

As was highlighted on last week’s episode of The Week in Beef, there is some uncertainty building in global meat markets – and there is concern that the numbers for feedlots are not quite working.

Queensland feedlots are currently working to fill September forward contracts for 100-day grainfed cattle, which is sitting 860c/kg carcase weight.

For the Angus market, it is almost completely driven by the forward contracts lotfeeders are on. Some are trying to find ways of pulling back their offerings and others being forced to keep looking for cattle to fill the contracts – which is difficult with a significant shortage of Angus cattle at this time of year.

When does China come back into the market?

Another big factor is China, with exports to China grinding to a halt in recent weeks as Australia is on the cusp of triggering its 55pc safeguard quota. Many are now watching the impact of that change to see what it may do for other key markets, which Australia will now be relying on.

Buyers this morning told Beef Central that it was most likely going to be cattle going into feedlots on forward contracts for November, where China will come back into the market. October is also a possibility, however, that beef will need to be held in cold storage for some weeks.

So for the feeder market, the reactivation of China is not too far away as most yards are now filling forward contracts for September.

Mr Quilty said he could see Angus feeder steer prices going to about 620c/kg in July/August as China becomes part of the market again.

“Feedlots have not been buying for China for a few months now and that market has stayed strong,” he said.

“By August, we are at 620c/kg or there abouts, then it will pull back for a couple of months then it will start climbing again.”

Mr Quilty said although America has just regained access to China, but its meat is a lot more expensive than it was before it lost that access. So Australia’s beef will stay pretty attractive for Chinese buyers.

Simon’s bold prediction

Mr Quilty’s big prediction for the feeder market was that he could see Angus feeder steers going to 720c/kg or higher by October next year. He said flatback feeders would most likely be 100c below that and Brahmans about 80c less than flatbacks.

He said a big part of that prediction was a shortage of cattle in Southern Qld and Northern NSW after a big sell-off at the end of last year and earlier this year.

“About 100,000 cows exited that region and 60-70pc of them were slaughtered,” he said.

“The last two weeks we saw heifer prices jump and they are now trading to within 20-30c of feeder steer prices. By January, we could see heifers trading at a premium to feeder steers.”

Asked whether his prediction was contingent on rain in Northern NSW and Southern Qld this Spring, Mr Quilty said “not necessarily”.

“There comes a time when you have tipped out so much that you just go back to your core breeder herd,” he said.