During the Ekka last week, Beef Central asked several people close to the northern live cattle trade – Australian exporters, northern producers and Indonesian importers – what they see in store for the sector for the remaining five months of 2026.

Two words featured prominently in their collective responses: headwinds and tailwinds, with references to the former dominating most answers.

High Australian cattle prices, a weak Indonesian rupiah which makes Australian cattle even more costly to Indonesian importers, rising shipping and fuel costs, subdued consumer demand, government-imposed selling price restrictions on Indonesian feedlots and increasing supplies of cheaper imported boxed beef were among the factors said to be pushing against the trade.

But despite the considerable headwinds, cattle continue to move in solid volumes, suggesting exporters and importers are still finding ways to make the numbers work amidst the challenging conditions.

Australian feeder cattle prices have been trading in the 430c/kg range ex Darwin, while higher shipping and fuel costs are adding to the landed cost of Australian cattle in Indonesia.

At the same time, Indonesian importers are having to contend with a weak rupiah,  subdued consumer demand and government-imposed restrictions on the prices at which they can sell finished cattle.

One industry source said sales volumes of finished cattle had fallen by an estimated 30–50 percent in some areas, contributing to a backlog of finished cattle in Indonesian feedlots which was further impacting demand for replacements.

And while the weak rupiah is also making imported buffalo meat and boxed beef more expensive in Indonesia, it is still available at prices well below the equivalent cost of fresh beef produced from Australian live cattle.

“All importers would be booking losses at the moment, but have to keep the flow of cattle moving to maintain markets and keep credit rolling over,” one stakeholder with close ties to Indonesian feedlots told Beef Central.

Another noted that international competition is adding another dimension, with a “huge number” of South American cattle currently moving by sea to markets in the Middle East, highlighting the increasingly competitive global livestock trade and the comparatively high cost of Australian cattle.

Price controls add to squeeze

Price controls imposed by the Indonesian Government on sales of finished cattle are also adding to the squeeze on Indonesian feedlots.

Some industry stakeholders believe the Indonesian Government may be showing signs of increasing the ceiling price, which they say would help to stimulate cattle sales, as would a drop in Australian cattle prices if the El Nino forecasts come to fruition and lead to an over-supply of cattle.

Others said Indonesian importers remain cautious about buying heavily for the 2027 Lebaran period out of concern the Government may again impose maximum selling prices below their cost of production during the peak consumption period.

One factor not constraining the trade at present is import permits, which industry sources said are currently readily available for Australian live cattle.

Despite the challenges, there is an expectation that shipments will continue at reasonable levels before potentially increasing late in the year.

“I think for Indonesia we will continue to see reasonable trade and a spike in imports in November-December building up for Ramadan,” one industry stakeholder said.

“Trade finds ways to keep going”

Speaking to The Weekly Grill podcast in an interview to be aired next week, Darwin-based cattle exporter Patrick Underwood said that despite the regular challenges thrown at the sector, the “trade always finds a way to keep going”.

He told host Kerry Lonergan that northern producers are in a good position following a good wet season, with strong demand for cattle from eastern and southern Australia adding to competition from the live export trade operating out of Darwin and Broome.

July exports remain solid

The difficult trading environment has not stopped significant numbers of cattle moving through northern ports during the seasonal peak in mustering activity.

Latest Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry figures show Australia exported 62,752 cattle in July, around 4pc below the five-year average for the month.

Indonesia accounted for 87pc of the total, receiving 54,620 head, with smaller numbers shipped to China (3904n head), Vietnam (2635 head) and Brunei (1593 head).

With strong competition for Queensland cattle from restockers and lotfeeders further south, live exporters have been operating primarily in the Northern Territory and northern Western Australia, a trend also reflected in the July port data.

Darwin exports reached a year-high 39,370 head during July, around 34pc above the five-year average for the month, with a further 12,277 cattle exported from Broome and 7101 from Wyndham.

There were no cattle exports from Townsville during July, compared with a five-year July average of 11,515 head.

• Keep an eye out for our upcoming edition of The Weekly Grill podcast featuring Patrick Underwood, where he discusses the current herd profile and cattle supply dynamics in northern Australia; the impact of the weakening Indonesian rupiah on the cost of Australian cattle and other imported commodities, including Indian buffalo meat and boxed beef; shipping and fuel issues affecting the trade; his observations on the progress of the cotton industry across northern Australia and why “short memories” remain a real and present danger when it comes to the ongoing threat posed to Australia’s cattle industry from LSD and FMD.