AUSTRALIA’s beef exports continue to be buffeted by a combination of trade distortions caused by quotas and tariffs, with September export activity data released this morning reflecting the challenging trading conditions.

Trade into China continues at a fraction of its normal level because of the severe 55pc safeguard tariff that’s applied since mid-June, with other markets – principally the United States – taking up some of the slack.

Chilled and frozen trade to all international markets last month reached 132,146 tonnes – up 3pc on August shipments, but marginally down on September last year when volume reached 139,000t.

Stockpiling of some frozen product in cold storage for release in China in the new quota year may be a factor in that.

For the nine months ending 30 September, Australia’s export trade has hit a record 1.209 million tonnes, a hefty 82,000t or 7pc higher than last year’s already high figure of 1.127mt.

In its September industry projections update, Meat & Livestock Australia has forecast calendar year 2026 beef exports at a record 1.606 million tonnes – up about 100,000t on last year. To achieve it, that means average monthly volume of 132,000t for the remainder of the year, which looks within reach, even given a normal seasonal decline in processing in the back half of December.

All major markets with the exception of China operated strongly in September.

The United States continues to dominate the volume space, accounting for another 43,479t of Australian beef – similar to August shipments, but another 1600t or 4pc higher than September last year. There is little sign evident yet that Australia’s lean trimmings volume into the US is yet being impacted by Trump’s recent tariff decisions, with frozen boneless exports totalling 32,600t last month.

Reflecting the deep deficit in US beef production due to a cattle herd at 70-year lows, the first nine months of the 2026 year has seen exports to east and west coast US ports reach a record 378,658t – up 50,000t or 15pc on last year’s equivalent period.

Worth noting in terms of trade impacts into the US, the first tranche of 100,000t of additional imported beef tariff free access for Brazil into the US for September has not gone close to being filled.

In August President Trump announced tariff free access for 300,000t of lean grinding beef tariff free, mostly accessible by Brazil, broken down over three months, in an effort to try to curb US beef prices in the lead-up to the US mid-term elections.

However import data to 28 September showed that only 37.5pc of the available quota had been filled, leaving 62,000t of the original 100,000t September allocation unused.

China remains subdued

Beef trade into China continued at dramatically lower levels during September, with just 7778t shipped. That’s virtually the same volume as in August, but a little over one third of the 20,700t shipped in September last year, due to the 55pc tariff imposition that lasts until the end of the year.

Calendar year to date, trade into China has fallen dramatically, reaching 163,011t to the end of September, compared with 203,200t a year earlier.

Other North Asian markets helped offset some of that China deficit. Japan last month accounted for 27,107t of Australian beef, up 5pc on the previous month, and almost 5000t or 20pc higher than September last year.

Nine-month accumulated tonnage into Japan has reached 203,312t, up 20,300t or 11pc on the same period last year.

South Korea operated steadily, taking 17,927t last month, similar to August, but 15oc lower than September last year. South Korea remains slightly ahead of Japan in terms of tonnage, year to date, taking 206,674t to the end of September, up 41,000t or 24pc on last year.

Emerging markets

Secondary and emerging markets were mixed in September trade, however some showed signs of taking up some of the space previously occupied by larger China shipments.

Canada continued to shine as a relatively new market for Australian export beef, accounting for another 6873t last month, up 600t or 9.6pc on August, and 19pc above September trade last year.

The past nine months has produced record volume of 43,100t into Canada, up 5000t or 14pc on 2025.

Elsewhere, the United Kingdom continues to gradually expand, taking 1476t of Australian beef in September and more than 16,000t year-to-date. That’s up from a little over 12,000t for the same nine months the year before.

Boxed beef trade into Indonesia continues to struggle under price-competitive pressure from other suppliers. Trade last month reached just 3008t, down 800t on August and less than half the 6728t shipped in September last year when trade was still vigorous. For the calendar year so far, Indo has taken 26,488t – sharply down on the 48,500t shipped over the same period in 2025.

Middle East markets continue to function reasonably strongly, despite the logistical challenges created by local geo-political conflict. Trade in September reached 6112t, up 35pc on August, and about a quarter higher than September last year. January-September volume has reached 35,467t, up 6200t or 21pc on last year.