AUSTRALIAN beef exports are now well within sight of record volumes for the 2025 calendar year, driven hard by high demand out of the United States, where domestic production has declined sharply as the US herd reaches 70-year lows after drought.

The impact is also being seen in other countries where the US and Australia traditionally compete for imported beef market share, including China, Japan and South Korea.

Total Australian beef and veal exports last month reached 139,012 tonnes, monthly shipment data released by DAFF shows.

Volume was up 3400t or 2.5pc on August shipments, but still well short of the previous record set in July when trade topped 150,000t.

In its September half-yearly Cattle Industry Projections update, MLA has forecast 2025 calendar year beef exports to reach 1.5 million tonnes shipped weight, as Australia continues to capitalise on global supply constraints caused by declining production and tariff impacts in key competitor markets such as the United States and Brazil.

Underpinning that, slaughter is forecast to rise 8.6pc this year to 9.02 million head, driven by robust cattle supply and somewhat expanded processing capacity.

With its beef herd fully developed after four better than average to excellent seasons in many areas, Queensland has become the supply powerhouse for processors across eastern and southern Australia over the past six months.

With the US starting to progress into a herd rebuild phase and Brazil facing herd contraction following heavy slaughter and drought recovery, plus prohibitive tariff levels for its own exports into the US, Australia is uniquely positioned to meet rising international demand over the next year or two.

To put the past three months’ export volume performance into perspective, Australian beef exports had never previously exceeded 130,000t before October last year, but have now passed that mark for the past five consecutive months.

September shipments were almost 25,000t or 22pc higher than September last year.

Grainfed exports boom

Grainfed beef shipments have followed the same trend, accounting for 39,888t or 29pc of total exports last month, up 2.5pc on August and 29pc higher, year-on-year.

For the calendar year ended 31 September, beef exports to all markets have now reached 1.127 million tonnes (1,127,235t) up an incredible 160,000t or 16.5pc on the same nine months last year. That number is all the more noteworthy, because of the flooding and cyclone-related delays in production and logistics that occurred earlier this year.

The calendar year record of 1.34 million tonnes set last year will now inevitably be smashed this year – barring some major catastrophe like cyclones or disease outbreak. At current rates of production, it’s looking extremely likely that the 2025 calendar year will set a new record, somewhere above 1.5mt.

The recent boom in export tonnage is being driven by a perfect storm:

• 70-year low cattle numbers in the United States, which is powering demand for Australian beef not only in the US itself, but also into third countries in which product from Australia and the US traditionally competes
• Impacts from Trump tariffs on export suppliers like Brazil, with Brazilian beef now all but considered unviable in the US market under an additional 50pc tariff burden, on top of the existing rate of 24.6pc.
• Trade access issues into China for some export suppliers, especially the US, where more than 400 US processing plants remain without China access after prolonged permit delays
• Strong continued underlying demand for beef in general. Despite current wholesale and retail beef price rises, consumption in both the US and Australia is up marginally on last year.

A key feature about the above record-setting pace is that it is being done with far fewer cattle than it was last time volume records were set (2014-15) when the processing industry was at full pace due to drought liquidation. Clearly heavier carcase weights and more grain feeding are more than offsetting larger slaughter numbers (head-count) seen a decade ago.

All key markets show strength, year-on-year

A key feature about the current record export trend is that it is not dependent on any one particular customer, but rather, substantial growth in all four largest customers (US, Japan, Korea, China) as well as progress in smaller customers like Indonesia and Canada.

The trade boom into the United States that’s been evident all year continued in September, with exports totalling 42,918t, up 5.3pc on August and 5700t or 15pc higher than September last year.

For the calendar year to the end of September, our exports to the US have now reached 328,793t, up 56,600t or 21pc on the same period last year, again reflecting current low US production – especially for manufacturing beef, but increasingly, fed cattle as well.

In a tight finish, Japan returned to second place in importing customer rankings in September, accounting for 22,759t of Australian beef, up 3300t or 17pc on the previous month, but 33pc higher than this time last year as US competition declines. Nine-month trade this year to Japan is now at 182,986t, still about 14,000t behind the same period last year.

South Korea pipped China for third place in volume rankings last month, taking 21,247t of Australian chilled and frozen beef, slightly behind the previous month, but more than 5400t or 34pc above September last year. Calendar year to date, trade into Korea is now at 165,138t, up 15pc on last year.

China has also surged this year as an Australian export customer, partly in the face of tariff and plant license issues with the US, where some 400 US beef processors that previously held China access have been awaiting license renewal since February.

Australia’s exports to China in September reached 20,741t, 7pc behind the previous month, but 4580t or 28pc higher than September last year.

For the calendar year nine months to the end of September, volume to China reached 203,248t, almost 68,000t or 48pc higher than the same period last year.

Where Hong Kong was once an important entry-point for Australian beef into southern regions of China, its significance has fallen away, with just 579t arriving in the port last month, and 24,800t for the year to date.

Among secondary and emerging markets, Indonesia and Canada continue to stand out, with Indonesia taking 6728t of beef last month, up 13pc on the previous month,. but still 1780t behind September last year when trade was particularly high. Year to date, Indonesia has taken 48,536t, mostly frozen, compared with the record-high 57,468 a year earlier.

Canada imported 5745t of Australian beef last month, continuing this year’s strong growth trend. This time last year the number was only 3186t. Year-to-date, Canada has reached 36,131t, up 75pc on the same nine months in 2024.