Markets

Chris Howie: Fuel prices may impact short-term trading opportunities after rain

Chris Howie 23/10/2026

Beef Ex

Andrew Hosken and I attended the ALFA conference on behalf of the RMA Network in October. Time well spent.

Putting the excellent line up of event speakers to one side, the contacts and discussions were extremely positive. Covering discussions on data use, feeder supply into next year and industry level engagement. It was also an opportunity to have discussions with all the major feeders and processors in attendance.

Both of us having watched the evolution of the feedlot industry it is now an integral part of creating a stable demand and continuity of supply for producers and processors. A great event that you should pencil in for 2028.

Chris Howie

Seasonal impact

Late September rain through SA and Victoria has put extra weeks on the feed growth and grain yield. Stock feed is outstanding and crops are exceptional. Ranging from 15mm Lower North SA & Wagga to 87mm at Tallangatta the front was very widespread.

On the back of this rain a few phone calls have come in regarding short term trading opportunities.

At present with fuel prices and a very toppy store market, it is hard enough I think on a short term basis.

However looking to the dry areas is still worth a shot. From Omeo east into the northern Gippsland is quite plain (at time of writing, at least) and maybe worth a call. It is also starting to become quite dry in Northern NSW and Southern Queensland. I was surprised at how many areas have had good feed growing rain but are still a bit short on surface water in dams.

The prospect of rain in the north saw store prices jump very quickly across the board last week. Central and FN Queensland receiving some significant falls which has shortened supply very quickly with restricted road access in some areas. Younger cattle lifted 30–50c/kg in a matter of hours, and we have seen several processor and feedlot grids move up which is common after a good rain.

However, the heat has set in for Northern NSW and some areas are still dry. Mitch Donovan, Donovan Livestock and Property, Grafton said it had been dry but a drop of 30mm two weeks ago saw the store sale numbers drop from 1500 to 500 and a rapid improvement in prices.

In the south harvest is probably a week or two behind normal as many crops are still holding a fair bit of green. As mentioned, many producers are holding stock longer on the excellent feed and targeting slaughter weights.

It’s the time of the year when working the phones is critical when looking for buyers – social media does not replace old fashioned phone work if you want best outcomes.

Spring supply.

It’s the time of the year when working the phones is critical when looking for buyers – social media does not replace old fashioned phone work if you want best outcomes.

Booking space without price can often leave you with no time to manoeuvre if the week before delivery the rate eases significantly. We are still seeing calls being made at present to find spot kill lambs and rain or no rain is seeing pricing remain very fluid at present on larger runs of quality stock.

Cattle

After observing cull bulls sold at a few fat sales it has become apparent the trade value on a good clean bull is anywhere from $3800 – $5000. Using that win on top of your budgeted sire spend seems like a great way to upgrade your purchase quality and speed up your herd improvement.

Wagga cattle this week remained solid across the board although early the buyer price calls were testing the market on cows until it settled down. Best cows remain solid in the low $4 range.

Feeders offered at the same sale saw a run of Black baldies in the mid 400kg range making $5.43 and the best line topping at $5.54.

An unusual season has seen the straight blacks sold earlier in September at similar money and now their white-faced cousins are making the same coin. It is important to be careful comparing saleyard price to on farm prices for feeders – 25c/kg disappears very quickly with fuel, freight and yard fees at present. A little less on farm can mean more in the bank.

The southern season is so good that traditional backgrounding operations have kept the foot down and turned feeders into bullocks

What has changed? In simple terms, it is supply. The southern season is so good that traditional backgrounding operations have kept the foot down and turned feeders into bullocks. One backgrounder in the Murray Valleys turned their traditional July 470kg feeders into 650-700kg bullocks. Making sure they become program accredited and took a grid price well over $9. Doesn’t happen every year, but it’s good when it does, especially when you take the time to tick the program accreditation boxes.

Cows and calves still seem to be the best value on buying at present. Not the elite front paddock models but the mid-aged cows in working condition with fresh calves at foot. These still provide multiple sale outlets and if the season kicks on the cow can be rejoined.

Weaner sales are fast approaching with the first runs scheduled in the South and WA for late October, November and early December. For vendors, weaning has proven to be worth the effort over the past ten years, especially for heavier calves that fit into the feedlot specifications. Animal health protocols, bloodline identification and program eligibility are all being sought now and equate to money in the bank for the seller with additional competition.

Take the time with your agent to look at what you can do in advance of trucking to the yards.

Sheep and Lamb

It has become apparent that continued rain, fantastic fattening feed and a shortage of lambs due to the two-year drought in the south is seeing producers holding lambs normally sold as stores.

In turn this means a lamb is not sold twice (or sometimes three times) but is direct to slaughter – now out of circulation. Much the same as feeder steers this may mean that prices hold for longer than expected with only a small hot weather correction caused by a flush of numbers. Recent sales are seeing most quality lambs trading in the mid to high $11 area and best suckers making over $400. Isaac Hill, Wagga Regional Livestock said lambs have remained fresh with good tight skins and vendors are being well rewarded. “At these prices we continue to draft and sell versus holding and shearing”.

I attended the yearly Elders Cross Bred lamb sale at Murray Bridge with a yarding of 9000. The main part of this sale is all the major processors attend to ensure they fly the flag. Over many years the sale consists of a run of good trade lambs then a large portion of stores. This year was completely reversed with excellent quality and processors buying nearly all lambs down to 18kg dressed weight.

Prices remain consistently between $220 and $300. It was also apparent shorn lambs made between and $10 and $15 more than the same weight woolies for the store section. Lots of smiles and a large crowd of onlookers.

Gave James Wilson, Livestock account manager, Nutrien Bendigo a call. Good day for the green team ringing the bell on sucker lambs and heavy mutton prices. Best suckers, Merino / Dorset cross, April May drop estimated at 32kg dressed made $405 and a run of heavy ex stud Dorset ewes estimated at 100 – 120kg liveweight made $401 from Pyramid Hill.

James also mentioned the yarding of 27,000 had the second highest gross for the centre. The interesting fact is the highest gross was a yarding of 37,000 so the numbers are pretty good. Heavy mutton saw very strong competition to quote $20 dearer, trade mutton $5 dearer, trade lambs firm and light stores lifted $20 on the back of a new buyer operating on the day.

My thoughts – We are now in a two-week cycle of pricing that will see some centres take a price lift and the following week numbers increase and prices ease. This is just a seasonal component of the auction system and understanding this dynamic can help you get on the right leg – a burst of hot weather and harvest can remove this cycle very quickly at this time of year.

Seasonal ewe sales are underway with best merino ewes making over $500 and first-cross ewes breaking $600. I think I have said before many of these top prices are program driven repeat buyers and there are still plenty of buyable ewes available at a lot less money.

Naracoorte and Edenhope first cross ewe sales kick off in November with Naracoorte firing on Thursday 12 and 19 November.

Speaking to Wayne Driscoll, AWN Horsham Livestock and Real Estate specialist, he commented that they are drafting to a $250 price range in the Wimmera with seed on the horizon before directing lambs to the shearing shed. AWN Edenhope will yard 10,000 ewes on 12 November starting at 10.30 prior to Naracoorte. Wayne said “the ewes will present in outstanding condition with the season playing to the advantage.”

Importance of the local saleyard.

The big selling centres hold their own with weekly fat sales and seasonal store sales. However, many smaller communities have lost the seasonal livestock sales that run during the spring. It is easy to let them go but it is such an important part of rural communities’ social scene.

The ability to interface with Auctions Plus or Stock Live gives smaller locations a national coverage and often the stock stay local anyway. Councils and Agents need to look at retaining this Australian feature as long as possible or in some instances create new opportunities as we have seen at Marrabel and Karoonda in SA..

Career pathways.

At Beef Ex I caught up with a number of people who have completed training over the years with various companies including Wodonga TAFE agency and supply chain graduates.

Jim Guilfoyle, centre, with Emily Perkins and Tom Wilding-Davies, Ravensworth Agriculture NSW during BeefEx.

I thought the conversation I had with Jim Guilfoyle, Coles National livestock manager beef/lamb was worth putting into a couple of paragraphs highlighting how one direction in a career can morph into a completely different opportunity.

After Jackarooing at Hay, Jim started agency with an Elders Traineeship which provided a great learning ground, he is still very close contact with most of them today. His first job was at Elders Deniliquin, where he elevated his auctioneering skills to a state win and a national final as well as gathering mentors who provided him with the confidence to discuss opportunities as they arose.

This led Jim away from his agency pathway with a role in the feedlot sector as a buyer at Charlton Feedlot. From Charlton to Killara then a step up to JBS officer in charge of feed commodities and eventually a pathway through Coles to become National livestock manager beef/lamb.

Its amazing how many roles are aligned to the meat & livestock supply chain which provide a variety of ways to build a career from genetics to end user and anywhere in between.

Speaking to Jim highlighted to me his own self-awareness in spreading himself too thin when it came to his executive role and his own family commitments. Through discussions with his mentors and employer he recently arrived at the decision to step down from this role to pursue his expanding family farming/ supply chain advisory business.

Jim told me he is looking forward to working with Coles’ to find the right replacement as National livestock manager beef/lamb (recently advertised on Beef Central’s incredibly popular recruitment page) and will continue to work with some capacity within this very dynamic team.

My view is I would encourage anyone wanting to try a different pathway in the Livestock sector of the agricultural industry to do so. Don’t let fear stop you from applying, often that experience alone will be of benefit to you. With the assistance of the right mentors you don’t know where it may lead you.

Flies and locusts.

Recent rains have seen a run of flies with a bit of humidity. Get your non-sale sheep jetted in advance of harvest or shearing. If treating sale sheep be very aware of long ESI and Withholding periods, many have been stung when trying to sell because of this.

Also, Mildura and further North into NSW are reporting significant hopper hatchings. It is important these are reported to access spraying protocols. Once they start to fly in swarms it is too late and they will even eat green shade cloth.

For those travelling, the impact speed between a grasshopper bounce or splatter on the windscreen is 80km/h

For those travelling, the impact speed between a grasshopper bounce or splatter on the windscreen is 80km/h. That was in the 1998 Magna, it maybe different in a Tesla or Land Cruiser – please adjust accordingly.

Opportunities

  • Log into the electronic sale platforms, still some good buying to be found.
  • Cows and calves – multiple options.
  • Always merinos with some skin
  • Wean your weaners
  • Get your assurance programs registered and put them on sale placards.
  • Work you network by phone to maximise the sale result.
  • Don’t touch your phone whilst driving – no exceptions!

 

Chris Howie is a regular Beef Central and Sheep Central livestock markets columnist.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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