CONFLICTING signals have come out of a mid-year US beef herd survey over the state of US beef herd rebuilding after years in the doldrums following drought.

A USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service mid-year update released on Friday shows US beef cow numbers have continued to decline over the past 12 months, while the total US cattle inventory edged a scant 0.2 percent higher, compared with this time last year. The report contained a number of big surprises, analysts suggested.

The nation’s beef cow herd was reported down 0.7 percent, indicating that the herd inventory has not yet stabilised.  However, the beef replacement heifer inventory was up 2.7pc, following a slight increase in USDA’s January 1 estimate.

“The January and July estimates of beef heifer inventories suggest a very slow process of heifer retention,” suggested Oklahoma State University extension livestock marketing specialist, Derrell Peel.

The 2026 US calf crop was estimated at 32.5 million head, down 1.5pc from 2025, while the estimated feeder supply calculated from the July report is down 0.6pc from last year.

“The smaller 2026 calf crop means that feeder supplies will continue to decrease through 2027; even more if heifer retention accelerates,” Dr Peel said.

Benchmark for cattle supplies

Len Steiner from Steiner Consulting said the semi-annual cattle inventory report provided a benchmark for US cattle supplies overall, as well as estimates for cattle production this year and in 2027.

Beef cow herd:

One of the big surprises in the report was the estimate that the US beef cow herd on July 1 – estimated at 28.45 million head – was down 200,000 head (0.7pc) on a year ago.

“Coming into the report we expected a modest improvement, mostly because of the low culling rate and the fact that the beef replacement cattle expected to calve on January 1 were 42,000 head(+1.4pc) higher than a year ago,” Mr Steiner said.

“The continued decline in the beef cow herd will further constrain US production capacity and push further out hopes for a recovery in cattle supplies and further constrain lean beef supply.”

Beef cow replacements:

There had been much talk about US herd rebuilding, and the July survey indicated that indeed producers have been holding back a few more heifers, Mr Steiner said. Beef replacement heifers, surveyed at 3.8 million, were 100,000 head (+2.7pc) higher than a year ago.

“Despite this, it will take a long time to start rebuilding the herd, especially since July numbers tend to see significant revisions in the January survey,” he said.

“Given the lower beef cow herd, the increase in beef cow replacements is not enough to meaningfully change the beef cow herd size in the near term, with more rebuilding activity expected in 2027-28 and the potential for an increase in cattle numbers by 2029-30.”

Calf crop:

Another statistic described as a ‘big surprise’ by Dr Steiner was the US calf crop, estimated at just 32.5 million, 496,000 head head smaller than a year ago.

“We were also surprised that the calving rate did not show a bigger improvement,” he said.

“The smaller calf crop and downward revisions to the number of calves estimated for the previous year imply tight pipeline supplies for feeder cattle in 2027.”

Feeder supply:

Placements into US feedlots in the second half of the year are expected to remain below year-ago levels, as the supply of feeder cattle outside feedlots as of July 1 was estimated at 33.6 million head, 200,000 head (0.6pc) lower than a year ago.

“However, this may change now that Mexican cattle will be allowed to enter the US,” Dr Steiner said.

Cattle on Feed report shows cattle being fed longer

Also released last Friday was the July monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report. Placements in US feedlots in June were down 2.9pc year-on-year and marketings were down 2.7pc from last year.  The July 1 on-feed total was 11.37 million head, up 2.2 percent year over year.

“The COF inventory has been higher year-on-year since March,“ Derrell Peel said.

“This increase is due to the fact that feedlot marketings have decreased 8.4pc over the last six months, while placements have only decreased by 2.9pc.  Slow feedlot turnover is contributing to increased days on feed; increased carcase weights and increased yield grade 4/5 percentage,” he said.

On average for the past 12 months, 28pc of US fed cattle have been yield grade 4/5, a new record high.