DESPITE a dramatic decline in beef exports last month to China, other markets have stepped into the fold, absorbing much of the slack, latest trade data shows.

Total volume exported to all markets in June reached almost 147,000t – back about 5000t from the all time record for any month set in May at 152,000t, but still a very large number, in historical terms.

For the first six months of the 2026 year ended yesterday (30 June), total Australian beef exports to all markets have hit 805,379t, up an incredible 103,000t on the same period last year, as beef processing activity hits overdrive.

That comes on top of all-time calendar year record export tonnage seen last year, totalling 1.545 million tonnes. At current rates of production, that number will be easily smashed again this year, driven in part by the enormous vacuum in domestic beef production in the US, and the resulting lack of US product available for export.

China collapse

Australia officially triggered its harsh 205,000t 2026 quota for beef to China on 18 June, sparking a 55pc tariff on imports for the remainder of the year, however sea freight shipments slowed much earlier than that date, in anticipation of the volume being met and the tariff triggered.

It’s meant that total volume recorded for June by DAFF to the China market was only 7814t (8500t for Greater China, including Hong Kong). That’s a collapse of more than 19,000t from May exports, when Greater China volume surged to 27,760t, as exporters and importers raced to optimise their business before the tariff arrived.

For the full six-months of the calendar year to date, Greater China has taken 144,618t, up about 9pc on the same period last year. But with the distortive effect of this year’s new tariff taken into account, it appears to be simply compressing business that would otherwise have occurred later in the year into the first half.

So will July numbers into China register on the DAFF statistics at all, now that the tariff is in full effect?

Small volumes of selected, high-demand items continue to trickle into the market, both by air and sea-freight, exporter contacts say, but for the next few months China will inevitably appear in the ‘also’ list of customers, instead of the ‘headliners’.

Korean trade also being distorted by looming tariffs

In a similar vein as China, trade into South Korea has hit record highs recently in advance of Australia triggering that country’s SafeGuard protection mechanism. That’s helped absorb some of the volume lost to China last month.

Last week, Australia hit 90pc of its 2026 Korean quota, and once filled, a 24pc tariff will apply for the remainder of the year.

It’s meant that export volumes have surged dramatically during May and June. June volume hit 24,012t, on top of a record just short of 30,000t in May. Compare that with trade in June last year at a little over 19,000t. Once this year’s quota is filled, volume into Korea will inevitably decline, putting even more pressure on Australia’s beef export options for the remainder of 2026, trade source say.

For the calendar year to date, Korea has taken 142,000t, compared with just 101,000t last year.

The United States, facing a beef herd a 70-year lows and re-emerging drought in some regions, remains the cornerstone for Australia’s beef exports in 2026.

Trade to East and West Coast US ports, plus a few containers direct into Hawaii, last month hit 49,200t, close to all-time records set back in the 1970s when the US dominated our export trade.

June trade came on top of May when volume hit 47,033t. For the calendar year to date, trade into the US has hit an incredible 243,000t, and with no sign of US domestic beef production being restored any time soon, a total calendar year number of somewhere between 450,000t and 475,000t looks within sight – especially in light of the heavy tariff burdens being experienced in both China and South Korea.

For the equivalent six months last year, the US took 203,000t – already a historically large number, but still 40,000t or 20pc behind this year.

In the absence of more vigorous US beef exports, Japan continues to take strong volumes of Australian beef, accounting for 24,012t in June, up another 3000t or 14pc on May volume. For the calendar year to date, Japan has tallied 124,127t, about 6pc higher than last year.

Secondary and emerging markets

Secondary and emerging markets have also helped absorb some of the slack from low China trade volumes.

Canada continues to shine as one of Australia’s emerging market gems, accounting for 4710t last month, up another 12pc on May and 11pc higher than June last year. Year to date Canada has now hit 24,500t, up 25pc on last year.

Indonesia remains heavily constrained by import permit issues and competitive pressure from Brazil, but still took 3427t of Australian beef last month, a small increase on the previous month, but dramatically lower than June last year when 6400t was traded.

Trade into the United Kingdom continues to grow, albeit off a low base, since the trade agreement was struck two years ago. UK business last month (now including a little frozen trimmings trade, as well as dominant chilled muscle cuts) took 2179t, down a little from May (2360t) but 20pc higher than June last year.

• Grainfed beef’s contribution to overall export volume for June has not yet been released by DAFF, but will be added here when arrives. In line with the broader trend, grainfed numbers have surged this year, with April recording a figure of 40,093t, up 8pc year-on-year, but still short of the huge 50,000t recorded in March. We’d expect to see the June figure close to this number, with March quarterly feedlot survey data showing a record 1.6 million head on feed.