Weather

Warmer, drier conditions likely to continue into 2020

Beef Central, November 28, 2019

 

LARGE parts of Australia are likely to see a continuation of the warmer and drier-than-average conditions experienced throughout spring, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s 2019/20 Summer Outlook released today.

The climate outlook shows a high likelihood of warmer than average days and nights for most of the country, while rainfall is likely to be below average for large parts of the nation’s east.

Only coastal areas of Western Australia, stretching from the Midwest to the Kimberley are showing increased odds of wetter than average conditions.

 

The Bureau’s head of long-range forecasts Dr Andrew Watkins said Australia’s outlook was being influenced by one of Australia’s main climate drivers.

“The key culprit for our current and expected conditions is one of the strongest positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events on record,” Dr Watkins said.

“A positive IOD means we have cooler than average water pooling off Indonesia, and this means we see less rain-bearing weather systems, and warmer than average temperatures for large parts of the country.

“The positive IOD means we’re also expecting a delayed onset for the northern monsoon, one of the key drivers for tropical rainfall during the summer months.

“At this stage we’re expecting the onset of the northern monsoon by mid-summer, which should see the odds for closer to average rainfall increasing from January and into February.”

Dr Watkins said the outlook was an important reminder for communities to be alert to the potential severe weather risks over the coming months.

“We’ve already seen significant bushfire activity during spring, and the outlook for drier and warmer than average conditions will maintain that heightened risk over the coming months,” he said.

“This outlook also means the risk of heatwaves is increased, so it’s important the community stays up to date with the latest information and advice from authorities and the Bureau’s heatwave forecasts and warnings.

“Even with a drier than average outlook, localised flooding remains a risk under particular meteorological conditions such as thunderstorms, and of course communities in the north need to be prepared at this time of year for tropical cyclones.”

 

State-by-state summer outlook and spring summary

New South Wales/ACT

Summer outlook

  • High likelihood of warmer than average days and nights over the summer period
  • High likelihood of drier than average summer, particularly across eastern Australia

Preliminary spring summary

  • Likely to be one of the five driest springs for New South Wales as a whole despite some rain around Bourke in early November and in the northeast late in spring; the far northeast was particularly dry
  • One of New South Wales’ 10 warmest springs overall
  • Days warmer than average especially in the northeast, but nights closer to average
  • A blast of extreme heat in late November increased fire danger and broke spring temperature records in the southeast
  • Large fires, persistent smoke and dust storms were features of the season

Victoria

Summer outlook

  • High likelihood of warmer than average days across the north of the State but no strong push towards warmer than average nights
  • High likelihood of a drier than average summer, particularly in the east

Preliminary spring summary

  • One of the five driest springs on record for Victoria, although rainfall was close to average around Melbourne and near the southwest coast
  • Days were warmer than average for most of the State, with record hot spring weather late in November
  • A blast of extreme heat in late November increased fire danger and broke spring temperature records at many sites
  • Cool nights were common, and the State’s spring mean minimum temperature is on track to be the lowest since 2003

Queensland

Summer outlook

  • High likelihood of warmer than average days and night over the summer period
  • High likelihood of drier than average conditions for most of the State, with highest odds in southern Queensland

Preliminary spring summary

  • One of the five driest springs on record for Queensland, and especially dry in the southeast, but rainfall was close to average in the southwest
  • Days were warmer than average for most of the State, but nights were cooler than average in many areas
  • Overall the southeast had a warmer than average spring but the far north was cooler than average

Western Australia

Summer outlook

  • High likelihood of warmer than average days and night over the summer period
  • No strong push to wetter or drier than average conditions for most of the State, however coastal regions stretching from the Midwest to the Kimberley are looking at slightly higher chances of a wetter than average summer

Preliminary spring summary

  • One of Western Australia’s warmest and driest springs on record
  • Maximum temperatures record warm across almost the whole State, and the Western Australia mean maximum temperature is on track to break the previous spring record
  • Numerous sites had their hottest spring day around the middle of November
  • Rainfall was well below average for most of the State, although the Pilbara picked up some rain toward the end of November

South Australia

Summer outlook

  • High likelihood of warmer than average days and nights over the summer period
  • Drier than average conditions expected in the southeast of the State but further north there is no significant push for drier or wetter than average conditions

Preliminary spring summary

  • One of the five driest springs for South Australia as a whole
  • Days were warmer than average, especially in the west, but nights were colder than average in parts of the southeast
  • A blast of extreme heat in late November increased fire danger and broke spring temperature records in southern districts

Tasmania

Summer outlook

  • Days are likely to be cooler than average in the west of the state. No significant push towards cooler or warmer than average nights
  • High likelihood of drier than average conditions for most of the State

Preliminary spring summary

  • Frequent gusty westerly winds meant western Tasmania had a cool and wet spring, but days in the east were warmer than average
  • Nights were cooler than average for much of the State
  • A blast of extreme heat in late November increased fire danger and broke spring temperature records

Northern Territory

Outlook for coming three months

  • High likelihood of warmer than average days and nights for most of the Territory
  • No strong push towards wetter or drier than average conditions for most of the Territory, but slightly increased odds of drier than average conditions for parts of the north and east

Preliminary November summary

  • November days were warmer than usual in the Northern Territory, and record warm in parts of the northwest
  • Nights were much cooler than average in the southeast, but warmer than average in the northwest
  • Rainfall was below average over most of the Territory, although there was rain into the northwest late in the month

Source: BOM

For more information on Australia’s severe weather risks visit: bom.gov.au/knowyourweather

 

 

 

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