May-July 2020 rainfall outlook
Above average May to July rain likely for southern two-thirds of Australia
May outlook
The week of 4 to 10 May is likely to be drier than average for most of Australia (mostly 60–70pc chance in eastern parts, greater than 70pc chance further west), with no wetter or drier signal for the southwest, northeast and eastern coast.
The drier signal extends through to the following week of 11 to 17 May across parts of the southeast and far north.
However, the three months from May to July are likely to be wetter than average for most of the southern two-thirds of Australia (mostly 60–75pc chance, greater than 75pc chance for the Pilbara, extending into southeast WA and western SA).
The likelihood of a wetter or drier May to July is roughly equal across the tropical north, areas east of the Great Dividing Range, and eastern Tasmania.
June outlook
Similarly, winter (June to August) is also likely to be wetter than average for most of Australia (mostly 65–80pc chance, with higher chances in central and inland southeast Australia).
It should be noted that May marks the official start of the northern Australian dry season. This means tropical northern Australia typically has very low rainfall totals, and only a small amount of rainfall is needed to exceed the median.
‘First look’ June to August rainfall outlook:
Warmer May to July days for north and east
Chance of exceeding median minimum temperature
May to July days are likely to be warmer than average in northern, eastern and far southwest Australia (greater than 80% chance for the tropical north, mostly 60–80% in other parts). Elsewhere, days have roughly equal chances of being warmer or cooler than average for the three months.
However, for the month of May, days are likely to be cooler in southeast Australia (60–70pc chance).
May to July night-time temperatures are very likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia (70–80pc chance for southeast Australia, greater than 80pc chance elsewhere).
Chance of exceeding median maximum temperature
Source: Bureau of Meteorology. To view more outlook maps for coming weeks and months click here
Previous forecast versus actual rainfall
Maps below compare BOM’s rainfall forecast for February to April 2020, issued 30 January 2020, with actual rainfall recorded over the February to April 2020 period.
FORECAST MEDIAN RAINFALL FEB 2020 to APR 2020:
ACTUAL RAIN RECORDED FEB 2020 to APR 2020
Source: Bureau of Meteorology
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