The ‘first-look’ October to December climate outlook issued today indicates large parts of Australia are likely to be drier than average.
October shows a strong likelihood of drier conditions across most of the country. However, the outlook for the eastern seaboard is different, with no strong indication of either a wetter or drier month.
October to December days and nights are likely to be warmer than average for all of Australia.
A drier and warmer-than-average end to the year would mean a low chance of recovery for drought-affected areas of eastern Australia.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are currently neutral. However, current observations and model outlooks indicate El Niño and a positive IOD could develop in spring. See the Climate Influences section for more information.
The above-average daytime temperatures that have occurred across Australia so far in 2018 are likely to continue for the remainder of the year.
October to December days are very likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia. Chances are greater than 80% over most of the western half of the country, the tropical north, and an area along the NSW-Victorian border.
Nights are also likely to be warmer than average across Australia.
Historical accuracy for October to December maximum temperatures is moderate to high across Australia. Minimum temperature accuracy is moderate for most areas, except northern and central WA, southern parts of the NT, central parts of Queensland, western NSW and southeast SA where accuracy is low to very low.
Source: Bureau of Meteorology