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The rainfall October to December is likely to be wetter than average over southern WA, most of the NT, SA, and southwest Queensland, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s latest three month outlook released this morning.

Conversely, the northern Cape York Peninsula in Queensland, eastern Victoria and southeast NSW are likely to be drier than average. Elsewhere, the chances of a wetter or drier three months are roughly equal.

For October, places which are likely to have a drier than average month include the tropical north, parts of the Pilbara in WA, southern Victoria and northern Tasmania.

The current outlook reflects a combination of very warm sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean, and a mature El Niño in the Pacific.

Historical outlook accuracy for October to December is moderate over most of Australia.

Warmer nights for most of the country

Daytime temperatures for October to December are likely to be warmer than average along the southern coastline, extending from Geraldton in WA, across to the Eyre Peninsula in SA. Much of the east coast south of Mackay is also likely to be warmer than average. Daytime temperatures are likely to be cooler than average in an area spanning northern WA and the central NT.

Overnight temperatures are likely to be warmer than normal across most of the country except in the southeast and parts of the tropical north, where the chances are roughly equal. Across the southwest of Australia, extending into SA, there is a strong likelihood of above normal night-time temperatures (greater than 80% chance in places).

The current outlook reflects a combination of very warm sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean, and a mature El Niño in the Pacific.

Maximum temperature accuracy is moderate to high over most of Australia, except for a small area in far west WA, where accuracy is low to very low. Minimum temperature accuracy is moderate to high over much of the country but patchy in the northern tropics, and parts of the east coast.

Source: Bureau of Meteorology