AFTER a record trading year by volume in 2024, Australian beef exports have started the year at a relatively modest pace – but much of that can be attributed to the normal Christmas/New Year seasonal close-down that many larger export processors schedule each summer.
In Queensland, which accounts for close to half of Australia’s beef production, two or three week seasonal shut-downs are common, taking a lot of production capacity out of the equation.
As a result total shipments to all offshore markets last month reached 81,049 tonnes – a sharp 36pc decline relative to December, when an in-month record 127,000t of Australian beef hit the water. Regardless of the fact that January is inevitably the quietest month of the year for Australian beef export trade, volume last month was in fact an in-month record, reflecting the relatively strong start to the year.
January 2024 saw shipments of only 75,500t, meaning year-on-year volume is 7pc higher than last year. In comparison with 2023, January volume this year was almost 30,000t or 57pc higher.
Barring weather, processing labour access is again shaping as a limiting factor in Australian beef production this year, relative to cattle availability.
Tariff impact
While processing has started the year at a relatively rapid pace, part of the January export trade story is relief from additional tariffs imposed in some export markets late last year due to Safeguard market protection mechanisms employed under Free Trade Agreements. These are designed to protect local cattle industries.
Both South Korea and China imposed Safeguard tariffs on Australian beef during the back half of 2024, due to booming Australian exports to both markets. In China’s case that saw a 12pc rise in the value of each product until 31 December, while in Korea tariffs rose from 10.6pc to 24pc.
Inevitably, importers in both countries held back some late 2024 shipments for January release, when tariffs returned to normal.
However national slaughter during late January and early February is already well above the same period last year, suggesting there will be some big export numbers seen in February and March – weather permitting.
Hot and dry conditions across parts of eastern and northern Australia since December has sparked a large early turnoff of cattle this year, although much of that is coming from ‘hobby and smaller coastal cattle producers’ offloading stock and catching up after Christmas/New Year. Larger, serious Queensland cattle producers traditionally do not start to move cattle until closer to Easter, due to the hot conditions, given that February is normally the highest rainfall month of the year.
Should a late summer wet season eventuate, however, supply will inevitably tighten for a period.
Most markets grow, year-on-year
Most of Australia’s significant overseas customers have grown January volume, year-on-year (we feel there is little point in making comparisons with December, given the circumstances described above).
In January, the United States maintained its recent performance as Australia’s dominant export customer – refecting the growing shortage of US domestic beef due to dramatic herd decline after drought. Shipments last month totalled 24,685t – representing 30.5pc of total exports to all markets – and some 22pc higher than January last year.
Australia’s shipments to the US last calendar year fell just short of 400,000t, and volumes at a similar or higher level look likely again in 2025.
Export trade into Japan last month looked healthy, at 15,806t, slightly down on January last year and only 2270t or 12pc below December shipments last year. With the Golden Week holiday and gift giving period taking place in April, Japanese importers are expected to ramp-up buying activity over the next month or two.
South Korea last month took 10,596t of Australian beef, down about 9pc on the same month last year, while trade into China at 14,908t was down almost 9000t or 37pc from December, but little little changed on January last year.
In secondary and emerging markets, January shipments remained solid, with Indonesia accepting 5759t, up more than 1700t or 43pc compared with this time last year.
The Middle East region accounted for 2863t, up 30pc on last year, while the total European Union market took only 820t of Australian beef, up 23pc on the previous January. Customers in the United Kingdom bought only 490t in January, still historically small, but at least up another 137t or 39pc on January last year.
Canada continued where it left off in 2024 with another 2106t of Australian beef in January, up 28pc on this time last year.
Click here to view full 2024 year beef export trade summary, published in early January, and click here to view an article on offal exports for the year.
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