Bart Bowen HTW

Herron Todd White’s Darling Downs-based  director Bart Bowen provided this summary of property market prospects in the Southern Qld/Northern NSW region in the HTW February month in review released this week….  

IF I was asked to speculate on property market futures towards the end of October, I believe the widespread dry conditions and the collapse of the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator would’ve had me feeling considerably more bearish than I do today.

While the rain has been extremely welcome in those many lucky areas, the recovery in the cattle market is particularly important for sustained property values moving forward into 2024.

I believe, as a whole, the rural property market in the southern Qld/Northern NSW region is peaking.

We continue to see strong demand in tightly held markets and those rural lifestyle areas. That said, it is noticeable that in many regions listing numbers and selling periods appear to be increasing.

This also suggests a likelihood of more challenging market conditions moving forward for second-tier properties, properties lacking presentation or holdings placed on the market under pressured circumstances.

Fair asking price

For vendors looking to sell in 2024, I would suggest adopting a fair asking price rather than seeking to eclipse rates demonstrated by peak sales in 2022/2023.

Also, be mindful of available property already listed in your region and the asking price of those properties. Your property will be effectively competing with other listings, for the attention of potentially fewer buyers moving forward.

As we transition from a seller’s market, to hopefully a market in equilibrium, buyers will have more choice. This transition in market dynamics will increase the likelihood of a property becoming stale on the market. As such, it would be prudent to engage an independent property valuer early in the process to give some unbiased advice and help guide decisions.

With this said, it’s important to note that markets and macro-economic factors can change quickly and for unexpected reasons. I’m not aware of anyone who predicted the eventual upside which would impact the property market due to the COVID pandemic through lower interest rates and strong commodity prices.

At this stage, sales evidence continues to support the peak values seen in 2023 and in some regions continued growth and demand is evident. Consequently, as should always be the case, I would suggest making property investment decisions on long-term trends, goals and pricing.

At the time of writing the EYCI is back above 600c/kg and wheat remains well above $350/tonne. Similarly, the price of many other farm gate commodities, while no longer at peak levels, still remain good by long-term averages. These prices, if maintained, will help to underpin a stabilisation of the property market moving forward.