Last week’s Eastern states kill reported by the National Livestock Reporting Service showed a modest rise from recent lower levels, producing a tally of 131,140, up 5.1 percent from a week earlier.

While the big influences over current low slaughter throughput remain issues like flat international demand and an abundant feed reserve, as highlighted last week, supply-side issues like heifer/female retention are part of the bigger picture. 

Further to last week’s discussion about low female numbers, several readers have pointed out that while the proportion of the kill in Queensland is historically low (JBS national livestock manager Brett Campbell describes it as the lowest in his memory) the corresponding NSW female kill in recent weeks, at least, has been quite high.

Last week’s female kill in NSW was 13,889 in a total throughout of 31,812, or almost 44 percent. In contrast, Queensland’s female kill was again exceptionally low, at just 28pc, on top of 31pc and 32pc over the two preceding weeks.

We cast the net around the industry looking for plausible explanations for this state-to-state contrast, and the best we could come up with is that a larger proportion of domestically-focussed processors in NSW rely more heavily on heifers as part of their weekly kill rosters. Activity in bigger NSW dedicated cow plants like Monbeef and EC Throsby, killing dairy as well as beef cow, could also be contributing.

The other explanation offered was the rapidly drying conditions in parts of NSW, which may be prompting some cattlemen and women to exit surplus older females, even though the general push is still on for herd expansion.   

Overall though, the trend Australia wide in female slaughter is well down, driven by herd rebuilding momentum. The supply of females entering the slaughter market remains well below the five-year average, as rebuilding efforts continue to dictate female turnoff rates.

Since the start of July, Queensland’s weekly overall cattle slaughter has averaged 6pc below the five-year average, with female numbers back 15pc. Male cattle throughput for the same period is steady, while compared to 2011, it has increased 3pc.

It’s symptomatic of the high rates of heifer and other female retention going on across northern and central Australia as herd rebuilding continues, in the wake of two or three solid-to-outstanding seasons, back-to-back. 

The biggest contributor to last week’s gentle rise in throughput was a substantial 8pc rise in Queensland, the biggest processing state, which recorded a tally of 72,168 head for the week.

One of the factors behind Queensland’s rise was the absence of industrial action at the JBS Dinmore factory for the week, after a series of weeks where strike action has impacted on production. Any change to killing patterns at a plant the size of Dinmore can have a strong bearing on overall state results.

A vote taken by workers at the Dinmore plant on Friday fell in favour of the AMIEU position, suggesting industrial action could continue for some time yet.  

In contrast, movements in the south were much less, reflecting the general tightness in cattle supply. Agents yarded only about 1800 at Wagga on Monday, and around 1000 at Forbes. Export-suitable cattle are particularly low in volume in the south.

The NSW kill rose just 1pc last week, reaching 31,812 head. Victoria was +3pc at 16,860 head; South Australia +4pc at 7644 head; while Tasmania was -8pc at 2656 head. South Australia’s kill continues to be supplemented by flows of cattle out of Central and northern Australia.  

Meatworks grid prices across major southeast Queensland processors including JBS, Teys and Nippon remained unchanged for a second consecutive week, reflecting the current equilibrium in cattle supply and beef demand. Really big flows of cattle are yet to be seen in Queensland, with Roma sale numbers well back on Tuesday.

There is still no real seasonal pressure evident anywhere, but that could start to shift if conditions stay dry and warmer weather comes on early.  Circumstances could change substantially over the next three to four weeks, without further rain.

Public grid prices obtained by Beef Central on Monday suggested prices ex Southeast Queensland plants this week around 320-325c/kg on four-tooth grassfed ox, 325-330c/kg on milk and two-tooth ox, and 295-300c/kg for best cow. EU grassfed steer were around 365c/kg, and 100-day grainfed ox the same. MSA grassfed steer were quoted to a top of 355c.

If there is any light on the horizon at present, it is a subtle upwards shift in demand and price from the US grinding meat market, particularly on the lean meats in the 90-95CL range, up 4-5pc on where they sat a fortnight ago in US$ terms.

The other positive seen in the supply/demand dynamic this week has been the encouraging decline in the currency value, with the A$ now finding some stability around US103c after sitting above US105c ten days ago.

Every cent improvement in the dollar value makes it that bit easier for Australian export meat desk salesmen when it comes to negotiating deals with importers and end users in North America and North Asia.