Picture supplied by the CSIRO with this week’s announcement of the Global Methane Budget.

WHILE Australia’s national science agency this week said global methane levels are putting the world on a dangerous path – there are some questions about the role of livestock in its Global Methane Budget.

The budget, which was produced by international research partners including CSIRO, said human-induced sources of methane had increased by 61 million metric tonnes per year – which is a 20pc increase over the past two decades.

It said agriculture contributed the most to the budget with 40pc, followed by the fossil fuel sector (34 per cent), solid waste and wastewater (19 per cent), and biomass and biofuel burning (7 per cent).

In a separate article in The Conversation, the report said livestock and rice paddies were the main causes of agricultural emissions. It also attached plenty of photos of cattle to go with the media package.

But the fluctuations in global methane emissions are not matching up to the fluctuations, or lack of, in global cattle herds.

As the article in The Conversation points out, methane emissions dropped considerably at the start of the 2000s before a steep rise between 2005 and 2024.

This graph shows yearly increases in global atmospheric methane. Red lines indicate the average for the decade. Data from the Kennaook/Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station in Tasmania. CSIRO, CC BY-NC-ND

According to an organisation called Our World in Data, livestock numbers have been on a steady increase since the 1980s and have not been fluctuating like global methane emissions reported in the budget.

It uses information from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation, which takes numbers from countries across the world – including South America, Africa, Europe, the United States and Australia.

Our World in Data shows cattle numbers have been steadily increasing in recent decades.

This is not the first time these comparisons have been made.

In 2022, UK boxed meat supplier Ruxtons put cattle numbers alongside methane emissions over a six-year period. In that period, cattle numbers had increased while methane emissions remained stable.

UK boxed meat supplier Ruxtons pointed to the decoupling of methane emissions and cattle herds in 2022.

Last year, agricultural market analysis website EP3 indexed methane emissions alongside cattle numbers and coal and gas production. The data showed global emissions and cattle numbers had become less matched over years, especially the past decade.

EP3 demonstrated the trend last year.

Beef Central asked the CSIRO scientists why they thought the two sets of data were not measuring up and whether it meant that cattle were not the cause of the issue they are trying to raise.

Readers will be updated with any response.

Australian cattle herds stable

Other CSIRO research suggested that the Australian cattle industry could realistically be climate neutral by 2026 – meaning that it will no longer be contributing to global warming. It suggested with stable cattle herds, as much methane will be breaking down in the atmosphere as what is going up.

According to this week’s report, the European Union and Australasia have successfully reduced their anthropogenic methane emissions over the past two decades.

Data from Meat & Livestock Australia shows the Australian cattle herd has been relatively stable over the past two decades.

National cattle herd statistics from MLA.

While the herd has been relatively stable over the past two decades, Australia’s overall emissions have been declining according to the Federal Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water.