SEAFOOD – both wild-caught and farmed – will pass chicken as the leading contributor to global protein supply growth this year, a new report issued by Rabobank suggests.
At the same time global beef production will show negative growth, as indicated by the sky-blue line bar in the graph above.
Both wild caught seafood (lime green bar) and farmed aquaculture (yellow bar) will exceed poultry growth (orange bar) on a global basis this year, the report suggests.
Global pork production (dark blue) will remain virtually unchanged, for a second consecutive year.
In contrast with other parts of the world where beef production is declining, in Australia, Rabo expects beef production to remain little changed in 2025, compared with last year.
“In 2025, economic conditions, geopolitics, and supply availability will significantly influence global animal protein markets,” report lead author, Rabo’s senior protein analyst Angus Gidley-Baird said.
“While protein demand remains vulnerable to macro-economic fluctuations and policy changes, seafood is poised to surpass poultry as the leading contributor to global protein supply growth.
Mr Gidley-Baird said government policy and macro-economics will shape demand and access to supply.
“As the global economy strives for recovery, anticipated policy shifts from new governments could introduce protectionist measures, leading to tariffs and higher trade costs,” he said.
“Military conflicts may further disrupt shipping and freight, impacting global trade and increasing market volatility. Although inflationary pressures have been easing, policy decisions could reverse this trend, potentially weakening consumer demand if incomes do not rise accordingly.”
Mr Gidley-Baird said production in many regions and species will reach a turning point, with aquaculture and wild catch leading growth.
“The year 2025 marks a pivotal moment for production across various regions and commodities. Overall production is set to grow slightly faster than in 2024, driven by aquaculture, wild caught seafood, and poultry,” he said.
Seafood and pork are expected to transition from contraction to growth, while beef will move from growth to contraction, reshaping market dynamics and supply chains.
The Rabobank report said aquaculture and wild catch are projected to grow by 2.3 percent year-on-year, rebounding from a 0.3pc decline in 2024. Poultry will continue its steady growth, while beef production will decline due to contractions in major regions other than Australia.
Pork production will be up marginally (0.1pc) after significant growth from 2021 to 2023 following recovery from African Swine Fever.
Mr Gidley-Baird noted growth in terrestrial species production will decelerate in most regions, with Brazil experiencing a 1pc contraction.
“China will see a small increase after negative growth in 2024. Oceania will maintain steady production, while the EU27+UK, North America, and Southeast Asia will face slower growth than 2024,” he said.
Australia contrasts
Contrasting with the broader global trend for beef, in Australia Rabo expects production and slaughter numbers to remain very similar to last year in 2025, and exports to remain at high levels as a result.
“Australian cattle on feed reached a record 1.4 million head in the third quarter last year. However, with demand for high-priced longfed cattle softer, 2025 may see an increase in shorter feeding programs that raises grainfed beef volumes but reduces marbling characteristics,” the report said.
Higher Australian cattle inventories will likely lift live cattle exports in 2025.
Mr Gidley-Baird said though Australian cattle prices emerged from the lows of 2023, they remained relatively range-bound through most of 2024.
“Favourable seasonal conditions in 2025 would support cattle prices, with stronger global markets driving potential upside,” he said.
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