Signs of an encouraging rally in the store cattle market are emerging, and a couple of particularly large lines of one-brand weaners due to pass through Roma store sale in a couple of weeks will provide a valuable barometer of just how that recovery is progressing.
The two consignments booked for the July 2 sale, totalling about 2500 head, are large, even lines of one-brand steers and heifers.
They’re a little lighter in weight this year due to the season, but genetically similar to siblings sold at the same annual Roma sales for a number of years, providing useful comparisons between current market momentum and where it sat in early July last year.
Recent AuctionsPlus Friday sales have provided some useful pointers to pricing trends on young cattle.
That’s being driven by season-breaking rain in parts of southern Australia, and continuing moisture across central NSW into southern Queensland, as well as an increasingly friendly A$ heading to levels not seen for three years. All that is contributing to buyer confidence.
Friday’s weekly AuctionsPlus online sale showed some excellent results, highlighted by a herd dispersal out of the Riverina, indicating just how far market sentiment has come since the recent southern seasonal break.
Hereford/Shorthorn cross cows with Hereford calves made $950 to $960, and Angus/Angus x cows with Angus/Limousin calves sold from $870 to $1035. Elsewhere, PTIC heifers sold from $600 to $810.
With demand for weaner steers on AuctionsPlus sending prices upward, the gap between steers and heifers has started to widen, with the difference last week between comparable lines ranging from 22c to 47c.
In NSW, Angus weaner steers averaging 250-300kg on Friday’s Auctions Plus sale made from 188c-203c, or $605 for 298kg steers from Bathurst. Black heifers in the same weight range made 166-173c. In the same sale, Red Angus steers average 179kg from southern Queensland sold for 238c, with the 165kg heifer portion making 191c.
In his weekly market report to clients, Roma agent Duncan McLeod from Murray Arthur Agencies said last week’s Roma store sale saw best light weaners sell to 211c, with heavier EU weaners selling to 204c. Most of the better calves sold from 170c to 186c to be 10-15c dearer, while best yearlings sold to 172c, and feeders reached 169c to be 5c dearer.
“Nobody, even with a passing interest in the cattle market, could have missed last week’s positive developments,” Mr McLeod told clients.
“Prices are continuing to strengthen in both the store and prime cattle markets. This trend will continue if numbers remain harder to source and issues such as the live export market, the Aussie dollar and the weather remain in our favour. No doubt we are coming off a very low base, but the trend is positive. And as many market watchers quote, ‘The trend is your friend’.”
Confidence on the rise
Another Roma agent, Brad Nevin from Watkins and Co, said a view was emerging that the bulk of the seasonally-impacted northern cattle flooding the store market recently looked like cutting out by the end of June.
“Traffic has probably slowed down 50 percent to what it was at full capacity, and even for next week, where we previously had a thousand in the book by now, it has now started to taper-off and get a bit quieter,” Mr Nevin said yesterday.
“Tuesday’s sale was a larger again (10,600 yarded), as a few more local weaners came forward. Some of those cattle were held back a little, after vendors came onto a very tough market a few weeks ago, when they were seeing 160c for good weaner steers and 30s and 40s for their heifers. There’s not a lot of joy in that,” he said.
But there was evidence at Tuesday’s Roma store sale that demand, and confidence, is on the rise.
“Some of the Woolworths contract-holders were back in the market, and starting to push that top end of the weaner weights 300-360kg. The lead of those cattle on Tuesday got to 188c for 300kg black calves. Contrast that to three weeks ago, when the same cattle were struggling to make 155c, and its at least 30c/kg better off,” Mr Nevin said.
“It was evident in Tuesday’s big yarding that there’s still strong and growing demand for the better quality, and the number of buyers is growing again. Teys didn’t break any records on Tuesday, but it was good to see them back in the market, particularly for MSA types, after buying very few saleyards cattle recently. They’ve been virtually non-existent in this market for three months.”
Mr Nevin believes good young cattle will continue to strengthen, as NSW cuts out of suitable cattle for the supermarket trade, pushing feedlot buyers north to source feeders. Additionally, there were some very good oats crops around southern Queensland, on the strength of recent rain. Direct consignment feeder rates kicked 5-10c among some large buyers as recently as yesterday.
“They’re encouraging signs,” Mr Nevin said. “A month ago, I was saying, give it six weeks and it will start to turn. Well, it’s happened sooner than that,” he said.
“I think we will see significant increases over the next two to three weeks for meatworks cattle, and the domestic feeder job starting to climb, also, for the better end of the cattle.”
Big weaner lines will provide acid test
Two big lines of weaner steers and heifers to be offered by Watkins and Co at Roma store sale on July 2 will provide an excellent indicator of the strength of that trend:
- Jeremy and Julie Shaw, from Double J at Injune, will put up their annual draft of 800 top quality Millah Murrah-blood Angus weaners, including 500 steers and 300 heifers, all Spring 2012 drop, averaging around 290kg. Click here to view website.
- At the same sale, Ian Murray’s Kindee Pastoral Co, with country at Taroom and Injune, will put up 1200 steer weaners and 500-700 heifers. These quality calves are crossbreds, mostly representing Shorthorn sires (Weebolla blood) used over Santa x Hereford x Charolais females. The lead is likely to top-out at around 370kg, coming back to around 260kg, average 280-290.
The Shaw family operates an aggregation of four properties totalling 10,121ha, running 1400 Angus breeders, bred from high performance, fleshy Millah Murrah bulls. They have successfully used the marketing strategy of aggregating their entire Double J weaner turnoff through a single sale at Roma for the past three years.
Last year, local buyers were too strong for the ‘outsiders’ on the mob, with local buyers specialising in Angus programs providing strongest competition. Gas miner Santos put together a large consignment of Double J steers and heifers last year to go onto its bought country around Wandoan and Roma.
At last year’s early July Roma sale, the Shaw’s steer portion (avg 296kg) averaged 234c/kg or $695 a head, while the heifers (266kg) averaged 208c/kg.
“Circumstances are a lot different in 2013, and the market is likely to be still rising for those cattle, when they’re sold this year,” Mr Nevin said.
“Realistically, they’re unlikely to reach the heights of last year, but I’m very confident they will still have a very strong sale, and a hell of a lot better than what’s about at the moment,” he said. “It will provide a useful comparison.”
Similarly, there was big inquiry last year for the Kindee weaners from backgrounders and domestic supermarket feeders around Moree and Inverell.
While both lines from Kindee and Double J were probably being offered ‘a little early’ to capture the full swing in weaner store markets this year, both vendors were locked-in to production systems with controlled joinings that necessitated getting the calves off the cows at the same time each year to carry the cows through winter, Mr Nevin said.
“It’s become an impossibility for them to push the sale date back any later, but we believe the outstanding quality and evenness of these cattle will work in their favour.”
The presence of the Double J and Kindee weaners at the same Roma sale each year tended to work ‘in synergy’, pulling a gallery of repeat buyers – attracted to the volume, evenness, and performance of the cattle – that in some cases attend no other Roma sale during the year, Mr Nevin said.
The steer portions have mostly gone to backgrounders for feedlots or for MSA specifications, while the heifers have been bought to feed or breed.
“They’ve done exceptionally well in the past, growing exceptionally well, maturing early, and producing fantastic weights as milk-tooth steers, or taken on to grassfed bullock weights. There’s not a bad beast in either line, from top to toe.”
“There’s going to be a great shortage of suitable finished cattle out there, going forward, because a lot of Queensland remains very dry,” he said.
- JS Grazing has advertised its upcoming weaner sale on Beef Central.
HAVE YOUR SAY