Live Export

ABARES outlook 2015: Live export volumes set to contract

Beef Central, 03/03/2015
Source: ABARES. Click on chart to view in larger format.

Source: ABARES. Click on chart to view in larger format.

A shortage of suitable cattle is likely to cause a reduction in live cattle exports from Australia in 2015-16, according to ABARES’ latest commodity forecast released in Canberra this morning.

Australian cattle exports for the current financial year which ends on June 30 will total around one million head, boosted by a 38pc increase in exports to Indonesia and a 95pc increase in exports to Vietnam.

However, while ABARES expects demand from key markets to remain strong, it believes export volumes will ease by 10pc to 900,000 head next financial year based on supply limitions.

“This reflects lower available supply of exportable cattle following two years of high Australian cattle slaughter and live exports,” today’s March 2015 quarterly commodity report says.

The reduction in export volumes will be offset however by an expected increase in prices because of the high ongoing demand for Australian cattle, ABARES believes.

Over the medium term, feeder and slaughter cattle exports are projected to recover to around one million head, with Indonesia expected to remain the primary market.

“Growth in Indonesian beef consumption is expected to exceed growth in domestic production over the medium term. As a result, imports will be required to assist in stabilising domestic prices.

“Demand is also expected to increase from Vietnam and Malaysia, as assumed relatively strong economic growth supports higher beef consumption.

“These are important markets for Australian live cattle exports because they do not impose weight or volume restrictions.

“Additional demand may come from new markets, including China, Thailand and Lebanon, if supply chains are developed in these countries and approved under the Exporter Supply Chain Assurance System.”

After taking some orders for slaughter weight cattle last year, Indonesia has recently stated it will only be taking feeder cattle again this year. ABARES believes any surplus heavier cattle no longer able to be exported to Indonesia will be absorbed by alternative markets without weight restrictions, such as Vietnam.

 

 

HAVE YOUR SAY

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Your comment will not appear until it has been moderated.
Contributions that contravene our Comments Policy will not be published.

Comments

  1. Stan Emmon, 03/03/2015

    Well hello, I wonder why people growing beef are getting out. I wonder why they cant sell beef for $2 a kg when it costs $2.10 Kg for the farmer to produce, and why the farmer has to work 2 jobs off farm to keep his farm…………..deeeeeeeeeeeerrrrrh. Yours Stan.








Get Beef Central's news headlines emailed to you -
FREE!