Genetics

Weekly genetics review: How are the prospects shaping up for spring bull sales 2024?

Genetics editor Alastair Rayner 09/07/2024

THE spring bull sale season has been underway for several weeks. As we have drawn attention to before, it is noticeable that the traditional boundaries between ‘autumn’ and ‘spring’ sales are increasingly disappearing.

While the number of bull sales being held has not significantly altered, many seedstock breeders have been opting to move the dates of their sales forward in an effort to avoid overlapping with others, and have a degree of “clear air” to both advertise and conduct their sales.

As a result, the spring selling season commences relatively slowly, however looking at the calendar for the next three months, the pace of the sales is set to increase markedly.

Looking at Beef Central’s national 2024 spring bull sales directory, there are around 230 sales listed across all Australian states plus the Northern Territory between now and the end of November (click here to access). The busiest weeks have as many as 26 sales in a seven-day period.

One essential point for producers looking to purchase bulls this year is to make sure they are across the date of their preferred bull breeders’ sales. The move by some seedstock producers to an earlier date has seen some shuffling of sale dates across breeds.

Last year several beef producers noted they were taken by surprise as their preferred breeder moved their sale date slightly to accommodate the larger sale calendar. While not missing the sale, these breeders noted that it caught them on the hop or that the most practical option for the sale was to bid online.

Again, while bidding online can be an effective method of securing bulls, for producers looking to conduct their own pre-sale assessments, the scramble to attend a sale that is slightly earlier than in the past does add to the stress many people experience at sale time.

The best advice for producers is to ensure they are speaking and communicating with their preferred bull breeders well ahead of the traditional date. Of equal importance for seedstock breeders, many who are often surprised that their clients are not always across the dates and plans for the current year’s sale is to make sure any changes are communicated clearly and more than once.

Price outlook

The past few years have been largely positive for seedstock breeders across the major beef breeds. In the last three years, sale averages and clearances have been strong, as cattle prices have risen and herd rebuilding got underway in earnest.

It is true that some of these averages were underpinned by several record sale prices and some standout events with breed records being reset. However, prospects for 2024 do appear to look slightly more subdued.

There are a number of factors that may contribute to a slightly softer bull market this year.  The most significant one, noted by Nutrien’s NSW Stud Stock Manager John Settree is associated with producer cash flow. The impact of the past year’s lower cattle prices, combined with the overall impact of cost of living and prices generally may restrict beef producers’ purchasing capacity.

Offering numbers

This year it is noticeable that many seedstock producers have increased their catalogue numbers, compared with the previous few years. While these increases are not necessarily significant, even the addition of only five or ten more bulls to a catalogue will have an impact on the sale results, if enough bull breeders make the same decisions.

As noted in Chris Howie’s monthly markets commentary published on Beef Central last week, early July sales in the New England have seen an increase of 10-15 percent in bull numbers offered.

These increased numbers will present some potential for producers seeking to purchase bulls with strong genetic merit. However Chris Howie also noted that early spring sales average prices were down 20–30pc on last year, with top end stud and commercial buyers holding value, but everyone else dropping down to the bottom values. This opens an opportunity for buyers to operate in the mid-range and get excellent value for money invested.

While this trend, if it continues through the spring, may see sale averages come back on last year, most industry observers are expecting that this will be a year where producers can really access very good genetics and as a result could potentially purchase multiple bulls of good quality for slightly more or equivalent prices paid for a single bull only a couple of years ago.

Chris Howie also noted comments from several northern agents on the good preparation that bulls have had this season. John Settree noted the preparation pf bulls and it has been a feature of many seedstock programs to prepare bulls well this year on grass and forage crops.

This should offer bull breeders a lot of confidence in the background preparation of the bulls on offer and in their suitability to join a bull team for this joining season.

The overall sentiment from observers is this year is possibly one where, despite some restrictions on cash flow, purchasers should develop a budget and try to take advantage of the opportunity to improve genetics within their program.

While the year has seasonally challenged many producers, particularly in southern states, the northern areas have a strong feedbase and a generally positive outlook for the season ahead.

The confidence felt by many looking forward may mean bulls that were very affordable this year move out of reach for commercial producers next year.

 

Alastair Rayner is the General Manager of Extension & Operations with Cibo Labs and Principal of RaynerAg.  Alastair has over 28 years’ experience advising beef producers across Australia.  He can be contacted here or through his website www.raynerag.com.au

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